ME’s Point of Inflection - Part 2 |
The US–Israel war on Iran is now poised to cause massive geopolitical reorientation in the ME-GMER complex. The Gulf Arabs are bound to draw incisive lessons, conclusions, and deductions from this war and, in particular, their position vis-à-vis Israel in US priorities. Of critical importance will be their assessment of the US bases on their soil, ostensibly established to defend them against the very threats that actually materialised during the war. Did they? Will these bases ever have a role to play in case Israel has an issue with one of them, like in Qatar, for example? Did the bases turn out to be assets, liabilities, or just the proverbial white elephants? To obviate a critical clash of interests, the Arabs might look for external benefactors who are not indebted to Israel in any way. New strategic alignments, partnerships, alliances, interstate relationships, and centres of power will consequently emerge. The US–Israel Combine’s hegemony over the ME, its audacious freedom of action and overwhelming military superiority, and the perennially skewed balance of power will thus be seriously challenged and countered. The Gulf Arabs must revise their threat perceptions, make peace with Iran (a binding, formal friendship and no-war pact!), and, in the process, end up forging a united Muslim front in the ME-GMER complex. Such a potential scenario will upend the regional geopolitical and geostrategic environments and deter unnecessary interventions by external forces. It would also practically nullify exploitative........