The geopolitical implications of the US–Israel Combine’s war on Iran will vary with the outcome. One, the belligerents have already lost the opportunity for a viable diplomatic agreement. It was disdainfully rejected by the US–Israel Combine when it was almost agreed upon. Consequently, the war with Iran is rapidly degenerating into a regional one with far-reaching geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic ramifications. Two, the US–Israel Combine, whose desired end state for the war is yet unknown, fails to browbeat Iran into submission. The US could yet feel compelled to cut its losses/embarrassment by bringing it to a violent end, à la the June 2025 confrontation. Three, in the remote possibility of Iran capitulating and a regime change occurring (most unlikely), the geopolitical ramifications would be colossal and numerous. First, it will extend Israel’s strategic reach, sphere of influence, hegemony, and freedom of action region-wide. Second, the Gulf Arab states might feel constrained to join the Abraham Accords. Third, portentously, Israel will move up to the Persian Gulf and thus increase its strategic reach into and even beyond the South-Central Asian Region (SCAR). Four, the regional balance of power will shift inexorably towards Israel, giving it controlling influence over regional geopolitics. Five, and most critically, it might usher in a pro US–Israel Combine government in Tehran. It could provide it a launchpad to assert its influence into and beyond the SCAR, to the enduring detriment of the vital national interests of Pakistan and China.

In the worst-case scenario, were........

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