President Donald Trump’s announcement on October 9 that the United States would begin importing Russian diesel has roiled transatlantic relations. Such abrupt and dizzying shifts have been a consistent feature of Trump’s war diplomacy. 

To assess its significance, we must distinguish the genuinely new from the wearily familiar. Since there is less to this policy than meets the eye, it is unlikely to have any real impact on the course of the war. Its few novel aspects will merely compound failure with ignominy.

This latest initiative resembles earlier Trumpian forays in three ways. 

First, it restores Trump’s natural preference for Russia. Despite taking occasional steps that displeased Moscow, such as sanctioning its two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, Trump always returns to his default setting of rewarding Russia and pressuring Ukraine. Since the fighting can only stop if Moscow is decisively constrained from achieving its war aims, such a policy pursues the opposite of what is needed to end the war. It thus cannot succeed in its strategic goal.

Second, Trump’s main goal is to restore economic ties with Russia and, above all, to make new energy deals. Moscow has repeatedly dangled the carrots of huge investment proposals to American negotiators. While Trump’s latest move concerns energy trade, not investment, even this is not new. From March to June this year, the U.S. granted a temporary licence allowing Russia to ship crude and oil products to mitigate the supply shock caused by the war with Iran.

Third, in importing Russian fuel........

© The Moscow Times