Where Does Russia Stand After a Year of Recalibration in the Caucasus? |
That the Caucasus is a zone of diverging political interests is nothing new. With Armenia long more Russian-aligned, Georgia seeking Euro-Atlantic integration, while Azerbaijan invests in ties with Turkey, diversity has been the norm in the Caucasus’ relations since 1991.
However, while 2025 saw a continuation in that trend, it also saw a recasting of the main players. Armenia looked westward as Azerbaijan set a new tone in relations with Russia. Meanwhile, Georgia slipped further into alignment with the Kremlin.
Perhaps the single biggest shift in the Caucasus’ regional dynamic came in August.
That month, United States President Donald Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as part of Trump’s drive to settle myriad conflicts across the world. Although the depth of Trump’s knowledge of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is doubtful (he referred to Armenia as “Albania” several times), the August summit bore real policy outcomes.
With normalization talks having dragged on for over a year, the Washington meeting provided a useful diplomatic catalyst. Convening the two leaders, Trump proclaimed that they had agreed to the core tenets for a final normalization deal with the United States becoming the primary backer of what he termed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP).
Under the deal, the United States is to be granted a multi-decade lease and exclusive development rights for the strip of Armenian territory constituting TRIPP. In September, it was announced that Washington would provide $145 million for the first phase of construction. U.S. officials have become regular visitors to Yerevan and Baku as the project begins to take shape.
Trump’s backing of the route appears to have provided a more palatable variation of what Azerbaijan has long called the Zangezur Corridor. The initiative aims to connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through a transit corridor across Armenian territory. Baku has long demanded the establishment of such a corridor as a component of any peace settlement, despite contention surrounding how such a project would be implemented without infringing on Armenian sovereignty. By stepping in, Washington provided a crowd-pleasing solution. Aliyev gained Trump’s attention, with the pair signing a memorandum to form a Washington-Baku strategic partnership. Pashinyan received a new Washington-backed, renamed version of the corridor, likely an easier sell to his constituents than previous iterations.
Often at the center of previous peacemaking efforts, Moscow now finds itself as an outsider looking in. The country providing........