Freeing Political Prisoners Does Not Cure the Disease of Dictatorship |
The Belarusian authorities have released 123 political prisoners following negotiations with the United States. From a humanitarian standpoint, this decision can only be welcomed: every drop of freedom regained is meaningful. Yet these releases did not occur in a vacuum and were accompanied by the relaxation sanctions on the regime.
Though the deal did not lift all sanctions, the exemptions and waivers granted reopened access to critically important export revenues. What we are therefore dealing with is not a humanitarian gesture, but a transactional bargain with long-term strategic consequences.
Potash fertilizers are one of the key pillars of the Belarusian economy. Before sanctions were imposed, the company Belaruskali controlled about 18% of the global potash market, making Belarus one of the world’s largest producers alongside Canada and Russia.
Potash exports brought the country $2.5-2.8 billion annually — around 4% of GDP and up to 7% of total goods exports. From a fiscal perspective, Belaruskali was a systemically important asset. This is why sanctions against Belarus’ potash sector were among the most painful blows to Lukashenko’s regime: they sharply reduced hard-currency inflows and increased Minsk’s dependence on the Kremlin.
The easing of U.S. sanctions restores these financial flows, providing funds for Belarus’ repressive apparatus. Using the potash sector as payment for the release of political prisoners directly strengthens the dictatorship’s economic foundation.
Washington’s decision should be viewed as a product of the Trump administration’s domestic economic and tariff policies. The American agricultural sector is under significant pressure from high prices — especially for fertilizers — amid growing trade uncertainty. The country as a whole is structurally dependent on potash imports, primarily from Canada. But Canadian supplies are constrained by logistics and already fully integrated into the market. Moreover, Trump’s aggressive tariff rhetoric toward Ottawa — including threats to impose duties on fertilizers — has only intensified price pressures and discontent among farmers, one of his key electoral constituencies.
In this situation, Belarusian potash becomes a convenient tool to relieve domestic pressure. Unlike other........