President Donald Trump’s legacy as a peace president is on the line. On June 7, Armenia will hold its first parliamentary elections since the Trump-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement in August 2025. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party has a wide lead in the opinion polls and is favored to win a plurality of seats. Nonetheless, nationalist angst over Azerbaijan’s military recapture of its Karabakh region in September 2023 and growing economic inequities will likely prevent Pashinyan from obtaining a parliamentary majority. 

As Pashinyan edges toward an inconclusive election victory, Russia is intensifying its efforts to discredit him and derail his pro-peace agenda. By mobilizing local surrogates, corrupt oligarchs, and like-minded international actors, Russia seeks to establish its hegemony over Armenia and reignite its decades-long frozen conflict with Azerbaijan. If the Kremlin’s election interference campaign succeeds, the U.S. could suffer a major geopolitical setback and surrender its newfound influence in the strategically critical region of Eurasia. 

Armenia's alliance with Russia has slowly unraveled

Over the past decade, the Armenia-Russia treaty alliance has incrementally unraveled. As Pashinyan came to power through anti-government popular unrest in April 2018, the Kremlin viewed him with immediate suspicion. Armenia’s frustrations with Russia’s aloof response to Azerbaijan’s victorious 2020 and 2023 campaigns in Karabakh converted latent discontent into outright animosity. 

As Armenia courted economic and security cooperation with Western powers,........

© The Leader