Troy Stangarone

The June 2024 announcement that North Korea and Russia were upgrading their relationship and entering into a new mutual defense treaty caught many off guard. The move was concerning enough that South Korean National Security Adviser Chang Ho-jin suggested that Seoul would reconsider its long-standing policy of not providing lethal aid to Ukraine. However, Russia and North Korea’s growing partnership is a rational, if disturbing, development in the current geostrategic environment.

When Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin met in September 2023 the shift in the relationship was largely viewed as temporary, driven by Russia’s need for munitions in its war with Ukraine. Then-U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said, “It looks to me as if Putin has gone to North Korea with a tin cup in hand asking for weapons, munitions and support, which is an inverse of their previous relationship.”

Many analysts at the time believed that North Korean aid would be restricted to old stocks of munitions, putting a limit on the relationship. Milley went further in his comments, suggesting that North Korean support would likely be ineffective as well. When asked whether North Korean munitions would make a difference on the battlefield Milley said, “I’m skeptical........

© The Korea Times