Park Jung-won
Due to its unique geopolitical situation, sitting astride both land and sea, the security of the Korean Peninsula is greatly influenced by external circumstances. If there is a common factor in the historical disasters that Korea has experienced in international politics, it is that political leaders have been complacent with their existing status and focused on internal conflicts and power struggles, paying little attention to ominous signs from outside. Since the end of the Cold War, especially over the past generation, there has been an unprecedented period of peace. However, things are now changing. Crises are brewing in Europe, the Middle East, the South China Sea — and closer to home, in the Taiwan Strait.
As if anticipating such a situation, North Korea’s leader has declared that the North and South are no longer one nation and that reunification will be achieved by force between two hostile states. Over the past 70 years, the South Korea-U.S. alliance has prevented further large-scale military conflict on the Korean Peninsula and provided the basic security needed for South Korea to achieve industrialization and democratization. But can this guarantee continue? If faced with difficult choices, what decisions and preparations should South Korea make?
Recently, NBC News reported that President Joe Biden’s administration is preparing “contingency plans” for an “October surprise” from North Korea, based on interviews with unnamed government officials. They believe that North Korea will engage in the most significant localized military provocation........