Moises Naim
WASHINGTON, DC – When asked by a journalist what might derail his government, Harold Macmillan, Britain’s prime minister between 1957 and 1963, famously replied, “Events, dear boy, events!” He was right. Elected leaders (almost) always come to power with comprehensive plans and promises, only to have their attention diverted by crises and contingencies that no one anticipated.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and his second administration will not be immune to this pattern. Although Republican control of Congress and the vast resources of the U.S. federal government will give him plenty of room to maneuver, he will face a variety of crises – domestic and international – any one of which could overwhelm his administration.
Many risks are beyond the control of today’s governments. The most obvious is the climate emergency. Not a week goes by without new reports of catastrophic climate-driven events – from raging wildfires to increasingly powerful hurricanes – and the resulting costs to lives and livelihoods. Yet the institutions charged with responding to these disasters continue to struggle, because the organizations, laws, regulations, technologies, and budgets available to such agencies are obsolete or insufficient. Owing to the novelty and sheer scale of the challenge, national governments’ incompetence is a global........