The world in 2026 is staggeringly and incomprehensibly messy and dangerous, as the post-Cold War international order is exhausted, emptied, dying. And no one knows what will follow. This recalls Italian political philosopher Antonio Gramsci’s famous aphorism about the uncertainty of dying orders: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born — now is the time of monsters.” As an existing system collapses without a successor, destabilizing, extreme, reactionary forces emerge and run unbridled until consolidating into a new order, which eventually is normalized with the passage of time.

Today’s international order interregnum features several monstrous macro trends. Artificial intelligence is colonizing our habitus, even our fundamental ability to think. Nuclear weapons are experiencing a renaissance as arms control weakens and arms races accelerate. Global trade for prosperity has been rolled back by fragmented, restricted trade for security. Democracy has regressed across the planet, while international law is now a meaningless slogan. Unilateral interventionism by megalomaniacal leaders of lawless great powers — Xi Jinping in the South and East China Seas, Vladimir Putin in Ukraine and beyond, Donald Trump in Iran and Venezuela — is rampant.

So, what monstrosities await South Korea in 2026? Certainly there are many —including those unknown — but the following will require Seoul’s attention.

The evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war: South Korea — both under President Lee Jae Myung and his disgraced predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol — has taken a moderate approach to Putin’s grotesque war of aggression, ultimately going no further than rhetorically supporting Ukraine and providing some indirect weapons support via sales to the U.S. and some European states. For all that, South Korea has real interests here. North Korea’s participation in the war has earned the Kim Jong-un regime financial and military assistance from Putin, while North Korean soldiers have gotten contemporary battlefield experience that would make it a more dangerous adversary in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula. At the same time, South Korea has shown a desire to return to the Russian market as soon as feasible, and seemingly hopes that Moscow will help Seoul deal productively with Pyongyang. How — and if — the Russia-Ukraine war begins to wind down in 2026 will thus affect South Korea’s security, economic opportunities and inter-Korean policy.

U.S.-China summit: Fundamentally, the end of the rules-based international order and rise of the monsters means a return to Thucydides’ maxim: the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must. No monsters are currently more powerful than the U.S. under Trump and China under Xi, so when they meet, the outcome sets the framework — constraints and opportunities — for how other states can act. Trump and Xi are expected to hold a summit in China in April, the results of which will have an impact on South Korean security and economics. If the meeting stabilizes the Washington-Beijing relationship, Seoul will gain clarity on how to navigate between its alliance partner and its aspiring hegemonic neighbor. In principle that clarity would be accompanied by greater latitude for high-tech commerce with China, as well as lower risk for unwelcome regional conflict. South Korea is also hoping that Trump’s trip to China might occasion a meeting with Kim Jong-un, thus possibly thawing frozen inter-Korean relations.

At the time of writing, Lee is himself in Beijing for a summit he hopes will improve South Korean ties to China. Doubtless he will also be divining in advance what he can expect from the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting.

US midterm elections: The U.S. under Donald Trump is a rogue state characterized by competitive authoritarianism domestically and lawlessness internationally. It is thus also an unreliable ally — including for South Korea — despite the superficially stable Washington-Seoul relationship at the moment. The primary chance to constrain Trump and possibly bring the U.S. slowly back on a path toward acceptable international behavior is the upcoming U.S. midterm elections (assuming they are free and fair). If the Democratic Party retakes a majority in the House of Representatives and/or Senate, Congress may again regain its function of checking and balancing the U.S. executive, including in the foreign policy arena that directly impacts South Korea. Democratic electoral success might also hasten Trump’s slide into lame-duck status, thus weakening and fragmenting the Make America Great Again movement that supports the ethos of U.S. neo-imperialism threatening both adversaries and allies. If, however, Democrats fail to regain Congressional power, the monstrous id of Trump will be further unleashed.

Finally, South Korea is not a passive observer of the world’s monsters — it has agency to protect its interests, despite a difficult environment. Seoul should use that agency to build broader, deeper and more active relations with other middle powers in similar circumstances. Two examples — of many possibilities — are relations with Japan and the European Union. President Lee and his Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi should continue to advance Seoul-Tokyo cooperation in all sectors, as this provides a stronger position vis-a-vis both the U.S. and China. A scheduled mid-January meeting in Nara, Japan, will provide an early indicator. South Korea and the EU are expected to hold a summit in the first trimester of 2026, and there are numerous opportunities for economic, security/defense and scientific cooperation. Both sides need to seize these opportunities.

With world order disintegrating, middle powers cannot fend off the monsters alone.

Mason Richey is a professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, president of the Korea International Studies Association and editor-in-chief of the Journal of East Asian Affairs.

© The Korea Times