Ian Bremmer

NEW YORK – Donald Trump’s resounding victory in last week’s U.S. presidential election should not have come as a shock to anyone. The 45th and 47th president rode an unprecedentedly strong anti-incumbency wave that has severely punished almost every governing party around the world at the ballot box this year. In fact, Vice President Kamala Harris was among the best performers of all “incumbents” who faced elections in rich countries this year – a testament to her disciplined campaign, Trump’s historically unpopular candidacy, and America’s world-beating economy.

Still, this wasn’t enough amid widespread voter frustration with elevated immigration levels and persistently high prices, a legacy of the global post-pandemic inflation surge. A hyperpolarized information environment that divides America into partisan echo chambers made it all but impossible for the Harris campaign to counter these headwinds. No party has ever retained the White House when incumbent approval is as low as it is, and when so many Americans think the country is on the wrong track. Seen in this light, Harris’s defeat was more likely than not.

The first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years (owing to gains with nearly every demographic group, in almost every region), Trump will take office not only with a strong mandate but also with unified control of Congress and a conservative Supreme Court majority. He will have free rein to enact his sweeping domestic policy agenda, radically remake the federal government, and rewrite institutional norms. But if Trump’s return will have a profound impact on the United States, it may matter even more for the rest of the........

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