In some ways, the dynamics of the Ukraine-Russian conflict, which began two years ago this month, resemble those of the Korean War. First, there is a sudden attack by an invader who expects to achieve victory within weeks, if not days. Compare North Korea’s quick capture of Seoul in June 1950 with predictions that Kyiv would collapse almost immediately after Moscow launched its invasion.
Then the defenders launch a successful counterattack, akin to the Incheon landing during the Korean War or Ukraine's retaking of Kherson and other cities from Russian forces in late 2022, momentarily igniting hopes of victory.
Finally, the war becomes bogged down in a frozen stalemate, such as the standoff between American and Chinese forces in 1951 in the mountains along what is now the DMZ. This led to two years of armistice negotiations amid inconclusive combat that finally led to a ceasefire agreement in June 1953.
Will the same thing now happen in Ukraine?
The front lines in Ukraine have barely budged in the past year. Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested recently that he is ready to negotiate to end the conflict. The U.S. so far has chosen to ignore his approach,........