Memo to Takaichi: Reject the temptations of populism |
In this era of renewed great power competition, the U.S.-Japan alliance remains the indispensable geopolitical linchpin of the Indo-Pacific. Yet the continued viability and necessity of deepening this partnership are subject to fiercely debated and often conflicting views in Washington, Tokyo and Beijing.
The year 2026 has crystallized a geopolitical landscape defined by nationalist leadership. In Washington, Donald Trump has returned to the Oval Office with an aggressive, transactional “America First” doctrine and has not hesitated to use unilateral force. In Beijing and Moscow, the leaders there, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, continue to harden their authoritarian grip, viewing the liberal international order as a relic ripe for dismantling. And in Tokyo, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a sweeping electoral mandate, bringing a pragmatic conservative vision to Japan’s highest office.
From the U.S. perspective, the necessity of a deepened alliance with Japan is undeniable, though the terms of engagement are shifting dramatically. As Dan Blumenthal, Mike Kuiken and Randy Schriver argue in their recent Foreign Affairs piece “Japan Can’t Go It Alone,” Tokyo has undergone a profound transformation. By doubling its defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product and acquiring counterstrike capabilities, Japan has shed its purely defensive crouch. The authors rightly assert that Washington must capitalize on Japan’s newfound muscularity by harmonizing defenses and coordinating industrial policy.