The risk of the Iran war restarting is irrationally high |
The ancient Athenians didn’t really have a word for sin. They had one for error, hamartia and they of course coined hubris — an offense of pride against the Gods or somebody else’s honor that was punishable as a crime.
These two terms offer an increasingly useful framework for what’s happening between the U.S. and Iran and why the risk of return to war is irrationally high.
A statement issued recently by Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei fits right in. Taken at face value, it suggests he will be even more hard-line (for which, read hubristic) than his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of this U.S.-Israeli attempt to end the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei still hasn’t been seen in public and is believed to be injured and hiding in near isolation. Yet he appears to be playing a significant political role in this crisis and, on April 30, announced there would be no concessions on Iran’s nuclear or missile programs, no return to free international sea passage through the Strait of Hormuz oil route and no acceptance of a continued U.S. presence in the Middle East.
These are the kinds of things people declare when they believe their hand is so strong they can impose the humiliation of defeat on an opponent. But Iran doesn’t have all the aces in this deadly game of poker. Nor does U.S. President Donald Trump, who has made similarly capitulatory demands of Tehran. Neither side appears to fully grasp the other’s strengths, nor their own weaknesses.
Trump has employed his navy to escort a handful of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, in an attempt to break Iran’s side of the blockade. Tehran’s response included a revival of missile........