Two military conflicts less than a year apart have renewed attention on China’s prospects as an arms exporter. But even with a compelling commercial pitch built on advanced technology, low prices and no questions asked, the country will struggle to find a mainstream market beyond a highly concentrated group of existing clients.

After decades of investment, China ranks in the top five of global military-equipment sellers in an industry hitting successive record highs, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a leading tracker of such sales. But the rising superpower hasn’t fought a major war in nearly half a century, so its weapons are largely untested in contemporary warfare. Beijing’s share of........

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