China Provoked Takaichi into Risky Move of Dissolving House of Representatives, But It’s a Gamble She Just Might Win |
By Yuko Mukai
8:00 JST, February 7, 2026
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who took office only last October, announced her decision to dissolve the House of Representatives in January. This act of dissolution, often called the “secret weapon” of the top leader because the prime minister can choose the most advantageous timing for themselves, is a serious political gamble. Skillfully using this power at the right moment can increase the number of seats in the lower house and strengthen the ruling party’s governing foundation. However, misjudging voters’ sentiments can result in the prime minister losing his or her title.
The late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe masterfully timed this difficult decision multiple times, successfully solidifying his power base in the process. Takaichi, who identifies herself as “Abe’s successor” and who has appointed several advisors who served him, has taken a similar bold political course. Yet, an unexpected actor was pushing her from behind the scenes: China.
What does this mean?
The story goes back to Takaichi’s remarks on a Taiwan contingency scenario on Nov. 7 last year. During a House of Representatives Budget Committee session, she stated if China were to impose a maritime blockade on Taiwan and use force against U.S. military forces arriving to support the island, it “could constitute” a survival-threatening situation for Japan as defined by the security-related laws.
China seized on her statement to launch a fierce political and gray-zone campaign against Japan. Beijing brought up historical issues on the international stage, aiming intense criticism at Japan. It restricted travel to Japan by Chinese tourists, limited exports (again) of rare earths to Japan, and, in addition to increased patrols around Japan’s Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, engaged in dangerous acts such as Chinese fighter jets twice locking radar on Japanese fighters.
From the outset, concerns arose within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and business circles that China’s backlash against Takaichi’s remark would be prolonged, which led to calls for her to retract it. To be clear, the Takaichi Cabinet, formed while the ruling party was in a fragile state in the Diet, had a weak governing foundation. It was obvious that if public opinion turned negative, Takaichi’s political future would face immense difficulties.
David Stilwell, who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs in the first administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, explained China’s strategy: “What Takaichi said is nothing new. What the People’s Republic of China is doing is they’re challenging her. Since she’s new, they’re taking the opportunity to pressure her and watch how she reacts.” He added, “They’re going to take a very insignificant thing she said on Taiwan and blow it up and........