Proposals that European states and the European Union should negotiate directly with the Russian Federation on ending the Ukraine war are overdue. Although there are still big disagreements on tactics and strategy, these ideas recognise Europe’s significant interest in a peace deal amid the growing diplomatic vacuum arising from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Europe was marginalised by the Donald Trump administration’s dealings with Russia since last year, despite now providing most military assistance to Ukraine, alongside crucial continuing US intelligence and co-ordination. Support for Ukraine against Russia’s illegal invasion remains firm but finite and uneven in Europe. It is strongest among neighbouring states with the most experience and knowledge of Russian imperial power; but their belief in the need for continuing war to ensure military victory over Russia and potential regime change there no longer holds as much sway. Nor does the taboo on direct talks. Rather a more pragmatic narrative about the merits of direct diplomacy has come through these rapidly shifting military and political circumstances.

Ukraine’s strong resistance to Russian attacks using new drone technology is a key factor. So are Russian troop losses and the wider economic effects of the war, including inflation and elite divisions on whether to continue it. The EU’s release of €90 billion defence aid for Ukraine........

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