Devolution isn’t proving a motorway to independence. It’s a dual-carriageway to nowhere |
In less than a month, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales could each have a nationalist first minister. The current Labour first minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, warns this heralds a “real possibility” of the UK breaking up. It seems more likely to cause frustration at the shortcomings of devolution.
Elections will be held to the Scottish parliament and the Welsh assembly on May 7th. The latest YouGov poll shows Plaid Cymru will be the largest party in Wales for the first time, and by some margin, although just short of an outright majority. The same source shows the Scottish National Party, a minority administration since 2016, returning with a two-seat majority. This will be accompanied by significant growth for the pro-independence Scottish Greens. Polls also show Sinn Féin remaining the largest party at Stormont in the Assembly election next year.
The SNP says winning a majority of seats in the Scottish parliament would be a mandate for another independence referendum. Plaid Cymru says the election in Wales is “not about independence” and it will not seek a referendum in its first term in office, but it does want a national commission and a White Paper on independence – in other words, a plan for the next term. Sinn Féin says it wants a Border poll by the end of the........