Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have transformed the concept of nuclear deterrence. If Russia and the US did not hold 88 per cent of the world’s nuclear warheads, they could not attack other countries with impunity. If Ukraine had not given up its nuclear weapons, and if Iran had achieved its goal of obtaining them, they would probably have been spared their present torments.

As French president Emmanuel Macron put it in a landmark speech on March 2nd, “you have to be feared if you want to be free.”

Macron used the ballistic missile submarine Téméraire at the Ile Longue base in Brittany as a backdrop for his speech. In a few days, he noted, the submarine would “drop into total stealth and play its full role, from the depths, as the ultimate guardian of our freedom of action and our independence.”

The world has reached “a geopolitical tipping point fraught with risks,” Macron said. He enumerated Russia’s new weapons: hypersonic nuclear missiles, nuclear-powered missiles said to have unlimited range, nuclear torpedoes and even a project to put nuclear weapons in space. Added to that, the US has “reordered its priorities” – a gentle way of saying, as Charles de Gaulle predicted, that Washington can no longer be relied upon to protect its European allies.

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Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons. Putin’s sidekick Dmitry Medvedev wrote in 2023 that if the West opposes Russia in Ukraine, “the life that existed before will be forgotten for centuries until smoky debris ceases to emit radiation.” Last December, Putin warned that if Europe “starts a war” with Russia, it will end so swiftly that there would be no one left to negotiate with Russia.

An unprecedented combination of threats had forced Macron to conceive of nuclear deterrence “within the depth of the European Continent”. From now on, France will progressively implement a policy of “forward deterrence”, meaning that France will temporarily position some of its estimated 290 nuclear warheads on the territory of allies most directly threatened by Russia, at the request of those allies. Macron stressed that the president of France will retain sole power of decision for their use.

France is in discussion with eight countries regarding its extension of its “nuclear umbrella”. All but the UK are members of both the EU and Nato. Other countries in discussions with Paris regarding protection by the “force de frappe” are Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark.

By declaring that any infringement of European territorial integrity is an attack on French vital interests, Macron has virtually sanctuarised the entire European Union. He demonstrated his seriousness a few days after the speech by travelling to Cyprus when an Iranian drone exploded at a British base there.

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French presidents have since de Gaulle spoken of the “European dimension” of French deterrence. This is not a radical change in French doctrine, defence expert Jean-Dominique Merchet writes in the spring edition of the intellectual review Commentaire. “What has changed ... is not the nuclear policy of France but the willingness of Europeans to engage in discussions with France to perhaps draw consequences for their own defence.”

The incursion by five drones, believed to have been launched from a ship in Russia’s shadow fleet, over Dublin Bay last December 1st was a wake-up call for neutral, idealistic Ireland.

Having spent just 0.24 per cent of gross domestic product on defence until now, the lowest in the EU, Ireland finds itself virtually defenceless. Ireland’s location on the western periphery of Europe no longer guarantees its security. The presence of critical undersea communications cables could make it a target.

Minister for Defence Helen McEntee made the only remark by an Irish official regarding Macron’s “forward defence” at the Munich Security Conference last month. McEntee did not rule out the possibility of Ireland being part of a French-led nuclear deterrent shield, though she stressed that any co-operation would have to be “within our Constitution, within our parameters”.

Macron emphasised France’s “constant commitment to nuclear deterrence for more than 65 years”. Ireland’s opposite experience has been an enduring commitment to disarmament. Irish foreign minister Frank Aiken was the driving force behind the adoption of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968. Ireland was one of the countries that worked hardest to bring about the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

The NPT has been called the north star of Irish diplomacy. Setting aside the thorny question of whether nuclear protection would make Ireland more secure, Irish involvement in nuclear discussions would be politically radioactive.

But Macron’s strategy includes what he called “shouldering” – a balance of nuclear and conventional capabilities.

[ We face a real danger that the nuclear arms race might be about to resumeOpens in new window ]

Ireland has made considerable advances on conventional defence in recent months. Military attaches are to be sent to embassies in Washington, London and Paris for the first time. Ireland will allow French and British vessels to patrol Irish waters, and will participate in exercises with the Joint Expeditionary Force, a British-led alliance on maritime security. Dublin has announced the planned purchase of up to €600 million in French armoured vehicles and artillery.

These moves are an Irish solution to an Irish problem, a tacit recognition of increasing threats and a demonstration of willingness to assume greater responsibility, but without a clearly announced strategy.

Macron’s in-depth and public reflection on a complex and urgent problem is an exception among European leaders. When Macron talks about European sovereignty, he means that Europe is the last surviving utopia, that its democratic elections and free speech, paid holidays, healthcare and education must be defended.

“Europe is a good place to live,” Taoiseach Micheál Martin said in the Oval Office in response to Donald Trump’s St Patrick’s Day criticism of Europe. That observation could be the point of departure for a major address explaining what Ireland’s role in the defence of Europe should be. At a time of global instability, with Ireland about to assume the rotating presidency of the EU, the Taoiseach needs his Macron moment.

© The Irish Times