Everyone agrees Irish house prices are overvalued. We’re in risky territory
There was one line in the survey on the housing market published during the week by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) that was really striking. It was that just 6 per cent of its members – made up of estate agents, auctioneers and surveyors across the State – believed that house prices now represented “fair value” for purchasers. Of the rest, 56 per cent felt prices were expensive while 36 per cent felt they were very expensive. On average, however, they still expected a 5 per cent rise in prices this year.
This is the Irish housing market. Pretty much everyone feels prices are overvalued, but prices keep heading higher. House prices can remain out of line with the economic “fundamentals” for long periods of course – just look at what happened between 2005 and 2008. Right now, there are enough people able to pay higher prices which, along with insufficient supply, keeps prices on the rise. And this leaves first-time buyers tying themselves in knots, borrowing from parents and working all hours to get on this shaky looking property ladder.
In this game of Irish property roulette, they are betting that the market will remain firm – at least for a few years – and that they will keep their job and increase their earnings. Pretty much everyone agrees that they are paying too much. But with a rental market where costs are astronomical and new supply is aimed at tech high flyers, they don’t have a lot of options – bar staying in the back bedroom at home.
Interestingly, while they expect prices to rise this year, two-thirds of those surveyed also felt they would “level off soon” while 18 per cent believed they had already peaked. A recent Daft.ie survey,........
