The September jobs report was another upside surprise for the postpandemic economy, and central bankers are projecting confidence about overall conditions, but business leaders are seeing some clouds gathering in the distance.
Business sentiment surveys released this week are showing that leaders feel uncertain about where they are in the business cycle, with implications for capital spending and investment, and some are expecting a downturn on the midterm time horizon.
A new survey of executive sentiment on the economy from PwC has found that 61 percent of business leaders expect a recession within six months, an increase from 49 percent in June. The survey found that 68 percent of executives cited “both an uncertain geopolitical and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.”
The small business optimism index released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business found that uncertainty among Main Street businesses had reached an all-time high, with the index climbing to 103 in September from 92 in August.
Overall optimism increased to 91.5 from 91.2 in August, which is within the range of a lower plateau in optimism reached in 2022.
In an interview with The Hill, PwC national tax office co-leader Rohit Kumar described the increase in expectations of a downturn among executives as “surprising” and “much higher than expected.”
“There’s a real sense from business leaders that the macroeconomic environment had degraded,” Kumar said.
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