Affordability will be key to Republicans' success — or failure — in 2026

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Affordability will be key to Republicans’ success — or failure — in 2026

About a week ago, sitting with about a million other people, stuck in some airport, in some city, suffering yet another delay trying to make my way home, I had a moment of clarity when a social media notification caught my eye: “365 wins in 365 days: Trump’s return marks a new era of success, prosperity.”

To be sure, the list of accomplishments and wins was impressive. But as I scrolled, I noticed one in particular that I lingered on: “Drove gas prices to their lowest level in nearly five years, with prices below $3 per gallon in 43 states and below $2 per gallon in 19 states.”

Knowing how much gas prices reflect the economy as a whole, a thought struck me: “From the way people are behaving, you would never know it.”

Yes, we should be celebrating this — a solid moderation in fuel costs. We should even feel optimistic about where the economy is headed. Yet that appears to be the furthest thing from the overall lived experience of many today. Even here in Florida, where millions have migrated over the last five years, we see how four years of former President Joe Biden and Congress printing trillions of dollars can make life in the grocery checkout line far more stressful than it has ever been.

As the 2026 election season approaches, I was reminded of a phrase that went viral before the term “viral” was even a thing. It was 1992, the very first presidential election in which I was able to cast a vote. James Carville, a man known for bluntness, outlined with four words not only the key to a Bill Clinton victory but also a cautionary tale for Republicans today: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

In 1992, a full decade of prosperity and a resounding U.S. war victory could not outweigh 18 months of economic hardship. The voters shifted course from a dozen years of Republican White House policies and gave a relatively unknown Arkansas Governor a chance. Why? Because the pain was personal. It was frightening. Bill Clinton figured out how to tap into that with a message of hope.

Republicans in 2026 should be mindful of where their party failed in 1992.

I am fortunate to have enjoyed roles in public service that have afforded me opportunities to understand this. I was Speaker of the Florida House — one of the nation’s most active legislatures — from 2014 to 2016. Today, I chair the Republican State Leadership Committee, where we work tirelessly to elect Republicans to state legislative chambers, state agencies, and executive positions.

It is in this latter role that I see a disconnect taking shape, between the rundown of accomplishments of the first year of this administration and the pain that working class families still feel when they look at the price of milk. It may not be as expensive as it was a year ago, but it is definitely way higher than it was five years ago.

As Republicans across the country continue their work in legislative sessions and agencies, I implore them: Do not fall into the trap. We are laser focused on policy and legislation, but voters are laser focused on their utility bills and the price of ground beef. They are looking at the bill for Susie’s braces. And despite making more, they see life getting less affordable.

They are being fed a lie — that capitalism and free enterprise are to blame. And if Republicans across the country are not careful, they will face a tidal wave of misdirected anger.

Republican officeholders must both recognize the real problems people are facing in affording life’s basics and articulate a message that excessive government is the cause, not the solution. Otherwise, voters will incorrectly lay the blame right at our feet.

It is February 2026, and the window is closing. We must commit all of our efforts to articulating the message of how decades of government growth have created every single economic pain point we feel — that the only way we can reduce that pain is by retreating from the failed notion that government can somehow solve it.

Whoever wins the affordability messaging battle, wins the election.

Steve Crisafulli is chair of the Republican State Leadership Committee. He is a scholar in residence at the James Madison Institute and former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives from 2014 to 2016.

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