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Beijing’s prefers neither: China’s view of the US election

5 0
05.11.2024

As the U.S. election nears, China appears to have little preference between Trump and Harris. Their main difference lies not in the fundamentals of their China policy, but in how they might carry it out.

China’s approach could be summarized as calibrating its strategies to account for the leader in the Oval Office in the areas of economy, foreign policy and Taiwan.

Generally, China would likely prefer Harris to win. If Harris were elected, she would probably continue Biden’s approach, promoting a targeted “de-risking” or “decoupling” strategy in trade and technology, tightening export controls and investment reviews concerning China, and accelerating supply chain realignment among allies.

But like Biden, Harris would likely not pursue complete decoupling from China. Given China’s deep integration into the global economy, decoupling would be nearly impossible without significant repercussions for both sides.

The West is highly dependent on globalized supply chains, with China as a crucial part, while many Western countries rely heavily on the Chinese market. Losing access to China’s market would be economically intolerable for many Western industries, and even the prospect of such a loss would cause substantial economic shocks.

As a result, Harris is not seeking to upend globalization entirely; in areas deemed........

© The Hill


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