With just over two months until Election Day, both the Trump-Vance ticket and the Harris-Walz ticket are in full campaign mode. Since President Biden stepped aside in July to let Harris take the nomination, everything that could go wrong for Trump has come to pass.

But not all is lost for the GOP. Polling numbers still show what could be a close race, particularly in battleground states.

Still, the underlying trend toward Democrats in several of these states is indisputable, suggesting that the race for the White House may not be as close as it appears.

In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Witmer (D) won her reelection in 2022 by over 10 points, which was 1 point more than her victory in 2018. Both senators in the state are Democrats. However, Gary Peters won reelection in 2020 by under 2 points. Classifying Michigan as a battleground likely overstates the support for Trump; pencil Michigan in for Harris, provided voters around the Detroit area show up to overcome the majority of the rest of the state.

In Pennsylvania, the same situation exists. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) won election in 2022 by 14 points. Both senators are currently Democrats. In 2022, John Fetterman defeated Mehmet Oz by just under 5 points, suggesting overall support enjoyed by Democrats in the state. What will make this race close is turnout, though with all voters motivated to show up, the tailwinds are certainly in Harris’s favor.

Wisconsin provides a more nuanced situation. They have a Democratic governor, Tony Evers, who........

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