Infrastructure strikes in Iran war escalate global energy crisis
Infrastructure strikes in Iran war escalate global energy crisis
Strikes on infrastructure amid the Iran conflict are worsening a global energy crisis.
Energy supplies were already tight and prices were soaring due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping channel through which about a fifth of the world’s oil typically flows. But recent strikes on oil and gas infrastructure are exacerbating the problem — and specifically creating issues for global natural gas prices.
“It’s having significant impact on prices in Europe and Asia,” said Ira Joseph, global fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, referring to natural gas. “It’s not really having an impact on U.S. gas prices right now.”
“It’s a very big deal,” Joseph added. “It’s potentially quite recessionary if this lasts for a considerable period of time.”
On Wednesday, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field. Afterwards, Iran apparently targeted natural gas infrastructure in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
QatarEnergy’s CEO and state minister for energy affairs told Reuters this week that Iran’s attack knocked out 17 percent of its export capacity and said repairs could take three to five years.
Qatar is the world’s third largest gas exporter, so the strike could be a significant hit to the global supply.
Gas that would have otherwise flowed to Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China is expected to be affected.
“Now we’re seeing direct attacks on multibillion dollar infrastructure that’s going to take as long as five years to fix. It’s keeping a significant portion of global LNG [liquified natural gas] supplies off the market for a long time. It’s going to be really costly,” said Jim Krane, a fellow in Middle East Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute.
In recent weeks, the price of Dutch gas benchmark TTF has spiked, nearly doubling since the start of that conflict. On Friday, prices were up about 17 percent higher than they were at the end of the day Monday.
“Asia, which takes around 80 to 90 percent of exports from Qatar, will be impacted the most,” said Aditya Saraswat, senior vice president of consulting firm Rystad Energy.
Joseph said that Europe, too, could see impacts, and could face new competition from Asia for gas that’s already on the market.
“You’re going to have to see more U.S. LNG, shift towards Asia…towards buyers who are willing to pay premiums over what Europeans are willing to pay,” he said, referring to gas that’s exported from the U.S.
American consumers, however, are expected to be relatively insulated. Unlike the oil market, the gas one is largely regional due to the logistics of shipping gas by boat and limited export capacity in places including the U.S.
“Gas markets are regional. We don’t import LNG in the U.S. anymore,” Krane said. “The higher prices are likely to be good for the companies that are doing the exports … it’s not going to affect us at all in the same way that we’re seeing it affect Asia and Europe.”
Accordingly, rises in U.S. natural gas prices have been muted in recent weeks compared to global changes, with benchmark Henry Hub up about 8 percent since the start of the conflict as of Friday afternoon.
Natural gas is a fossil fuel whose main component is methane. Unlike similarly-named gasoline, natural gas is not made from oil, though it can be co-occurring with oil. It is commonly used in home heating and appliances, as well as at power plants.
Joseph said that higher fuel prices abroad could have implications for the broader economy.
“High prices create scarcity. A lot of countries and a lot of buyers can’t afford energy, and if the buyers can’t afford energy, whatever they’re producing, they produce less of and that causes their economies to recede,” he said.
The strikes come as the world is already facing significant energy supply and price difficulties as the war has halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil and gasoline prices in particular have risen sharply in recent weeks.
On Friday, the national average gasoline price was about $3.91 per gallon, up nearly a dollar from a month prior.
Those prices are putting strains on consumers including in the U.S., and is triggering some fears of a broader recession.
This past week, Saudi Arabian officials warned The Wall Street Journal that oil prices could jump up to $180 per barrel from their current $109 price as of Friday.
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