Lessons from Reagan and Clinton can shield both parties from fiscal disaster
As the U.S. presidential election enters the stretch run, it stands out as being unprecedented: No prior election has seen a political party change its standard bearer this late into the election cycle.
While Kamala Harris is known for her defense of abortion rights and role in border security, her positions on economic policies are unknown. The presumption, however, is that she will focus on low-income workers, middle-class families and women’s rights.
In her initial address to campaign staff, Harris said she would push for paid family leave and affordable child care — key not enacted during President Biden’s tenure.
One issue, however, that Harris and Trump have yet to address is what they will do if the economy weakens.
The principal way presidents influence the economy is through fiscal policy. When the economy swooned during the COVID-19 pandemic, both Donald Trump and Biden spent a combined $4.6 trillion on relief payments. This assistance was five times larger than during the 2008 financial crisis. It helped get the economy through a steep plunge in the spring of 2020 and paved the way for a powerful V-shaped recovery.
The problem today, however, is that publicly-held federal debt is on an unsustainable trajectory. It is poised to exceed the record of more than 100 percent of GDP at the end of World War II by a considerable margin.
The latest projections by the Congressional Budget Office call for budget imbalances to increase steadily over the next 10 years if current policies........
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