Trump’s State of the Union: 5 things to watch

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Trump’s State of the Union: 5 things to watch

President Trump will step into the House chamber on Tuesday night to deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term.

Trump, like most newly elected presidents, addressed a joint session of Congress last year, but it was not an official State of the Union.

The president will give the key speech as political storm clouds gather around him.

His approval ratings are at or close to all-time lows, with voter discontent over the state of the economy especially potent. Immigration, once his strongest issue, is now a more mixed bag amid huge controversy over aggressive enforcement actions. Just last week, the Supreme Court struck down many of the president’s key tariffs.

On the flip side, Trump can rely on the loyalty of his fervent Make America Great Again (MAGA) base, Democrats have little real leverage to curb him and his room to maneuver on foreign policy remains vast.

Here are the key things to watch.

What does he say about Iran?

Iran is the most obvious topic on which Trump could make seismic news.

The U.S has been building up its military presence in the Middle East to a huge degree, dispatching two aircraft carrier groups to the region. Negotiators from Washington and Tehran are set to meet Thursday in Geneva for what may be a make-or-break round of talks.

But there are many questions — firstly about the legality of a potential U.S. strike on Iran and secondly about what, precisely, Trump wants.

His aggressive posture toward Iran has, at various points, seemed to focus on eradicating the Islamic Republic’s nuclear capabilities; depleting Tehran’s ballistic missile capacity, nuclear or otherwise; or perhaps toppling the regime itself.

Trump may at least outline more clearly how he sees the threat from Iran during his speech — and what he plans to do about it.

How bad will tariff tensions be with SCOTUS justices?

Trump has been openly furious about last week’s Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which invalidated levies he had imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The president was especially irate that three conservative members of the court — including two whom Trump himself nominated during his first term, Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch — were part of the 6-3 majority.

At a press conference Friday, Trump attacked them in unusually personal terms, saying that the decision was “an embarrassment to their families.”

At the same Friday appearance, Trump told The Hill’s Julia Manchester that the justices who displeased him were “barely invited” to the State of the Union, adding, “to be honest, I could care less if they come or not.”

The fractious atmosphere makes it more likely that Trump could attack the justices during his speech.

Notably, on Monday, he also dismissed concerns that he needs congressional approval for new tariffs.

“As President, I do not have to go back to Congress to get approval of Tariffs. It has already been gotten, in many forms, a long time ago!” he wrote on social media.

How fervently does he defend ICE?

Trump enjoyed a massive polling lead on immigration during the 2024 election campaign, when voters were angry about historically large numbers of people crossing the southern border without legal authorization.

In office, Trump has stemmed those crossings greatly. But enforcement efforts involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other Department of Homeland Security (DHS) agents have been a very different story.

The tensions reached a peak in Minneapolis in January, when two U.S. citizens were killed — Renee Good and Alex Pretti. Attempts by senior members of the administration to disparage the two also backfired badly.

Trump drafted border czar Tom Homan to be the new face of the operation in Minnesota, and Homan duly announced an end to the surge of federal forces.

But political damage has been done. A new Washington Post/ABC News/IPSOS poll indicates that Americans oppose the tactics ICE has been using by a 2-to-1 majority, 62 percent to 31 percent.

Even so, Trump is plainly not going to walk away from an issue that is central to his political identity.

On Monday, he hosted families of people killed by migrants without legal status at a White House event. Some of those people are expected to attend the State of the Union.

What’s the midterm message?

There have been rumblings of discontent, even in the conservative world, about the degree to which Trump’s stranger fixations distract him from more pressing concerns. For example, even many Republicans are skeptical that the question of whether the U.S. controls Greenland will be uppermost in voters’ minds in November.

Therefore, one key question is whether Trump can deliver a pithy campaign message.

On the economy, he can point to the fact that inflation has not soared, as many critics predicted when he launched his tariff-heavy approach. The stock market, despite recent bouts of turbulence, remains close to all-time highs.

But to Trump’s chagrin, voter concerns about affordability, in particular, are acute. The Ipsos poll found inflation to be his worst issue of six topics, with Americans disapproving of his performance by 65 percent to 32 percent.

Trump has a chance to try to begin changing those numbers on Tuesday. Will he take it?

What do Democrats do in response?

The opposition party is often in a bind during State of the Union addresses.

In the chamber itself, showing opposition without seeming ineffectual or petty can be difficult. And the task of delivering the official response is often a thankless task.

This year, newly elected Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) will give the official rebuttal. But others will be part of the effort too: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) will give a Spanish-language response, and Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) will deliver the reply to Trump on behalf of progressives.

Lee is among a growing list of Democrats who will boycott Trump’s address.

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