The Memo: Trump, GOP race the clock to bring inflation down before midterms

President Trump and his Republican colleagues are in a race against time, hoping that inflation can be bent downward in time to revive their chances in November’s midterm elections.

Seen through one lens, the picture is bleak. 

New data released late last week on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed inflation above 4 percent. Even excluding food and gas costs, so-called core inflation was at 3.4 percent for the year ending in May. This, in turn, makes an imminent reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve much less likely — despite Trump’s clamoring for it.

Gas prices also remain elevated, with the national average cost per gallon at $3.90 on Friday, according to AAA. Although down from its apex, this price is still almost $1 above the level that was seen just before Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attacked Iran in late February.

On the other hand, different elements of the picture give more hope to Republicans — especially when it comes to the apparent winding-down of the war with the Islamic Republic.

Oil prices are plummeting. On Friday afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude, the industry benchmark, was trading at around $70 a barrel — only minimally above where it was at the outbreak of the war and way down from its early April peak of more than $112.

The dramatic fall in oil prices should be reflected in due course at the pump — and, consequently, through the broader economy. 

But will prices be curbed fast enough to improve Republicans’ chances in November?

“We have time, but we don’t have that much time,” GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak said. “There are several reasons for Republicans to believe things are going to get better. The questions are: How much better are they going to get, and how much are voters going to feel it?”

The polling numbers demonstrate just how steep a climb the........

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