GOP, Trump face tough midterm odds: 5 things the polls reveal

It is almost exactly six months until the midterm elections, set for Nov. 3.

As the clock ticks down, the state of the polls is becoming more salient.

For now, the Beltway consensus is that Democrats are strong favorites to take control of the House, where the GOP is defending a tiny majority. 

Democrats could also spring a surprise in the Senate, where they had not been expected to have a realistic shot. Many of the battleground states this year were carried by President Trump in 2024, but Democrats have a chance in several, including North Carolina, Ohio and, at a stretch, Texas. 

An enormous amount can change in the coming months. Six months ago, few people thought the U.S. would be in a conflict with Iran that is roiling the economy.

But here’s what the polls are saying right now.

Trump is weighing down the GOP

The president’s approval ratings are very poor — and that spells trouble for his party.

Trump’s numbers are at, or near, the lowest point of his second term in many surveys. 

An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday found just 37 percent of Americans approving of his job performance and 62 percent disapproving.

The war on Iran and its effects on prices at home — particularly at the gas pump — are pushing Trump’s ratings down. The average price of gas nationwide on Monday was $4.45, according to AAA. Before the war began on Feb. 28, the average price was just under $3.

The ABC/Washington Post poll was far from an outlier.

In the polling average maintained by The Hill’s data partner, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump is 17 points underwater, with 56.9 percent disapproving and 39.7 percent approving of his job performance.

Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin has Trump almost 19 points in negative territory — a deficit 8 points larger than where it stood at the start of the year.

In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, Trump is 16........

© The Hill