Control of the House is up for grabs, and political observers of all stripes will be watching on Tuesday with anxious anticipation for early signs of which party will hold the gavel in the next Congress.
Election forecasters have singled out dozens of highly contested seats — some of them “toss-ups” and some “leaning” in favor of one party or the other — that will determine whether Republicans keep the majority or Democrats return to power after two years in the minority wilderness.
But not all battleground seats are created equal. Campaign strategists in both parties say there are a handful of contests they’ll be watching with particular attention as they seek early signs of which way the political winds might be blowing — and how well they’ll fare overall when the dust settles at the end of the process.
Those races tend to be in the Eastern time zone, where the polls will close first and results should come most quickly, although there are exceptions to the rule. Pennsylvania, for instance, is home to several close contests, but the state’s mail-in ballot rules are expected to delay the outcomes beyond Election Day. Iowa and Nebraska are in the Central time zone, but those results are expected to be known the night of the election.
Here are some of the races that might serve as an early barometer of which side has the edge in the election night fight.
Virginia’s 2nd and 7th districts
The two suburban battleground seats in Virginia could easily split between the two parties, and not reveal much about national trends across the country. But one party winning both would be an indication of good things to come for that side.
“I think most likely we split Virginia one way or another. But obviously, you start to get some wind in your sails if you could win two — either party,” a Democratic strategist said.
In the Virginia Beach area, first-term Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) is facing Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal for Virginia’s 2nd District. The GOP is confident about keeping the seat, so a loss there could be a sign of consequential Democratic gains.
The state’s 7th District is an open race, with Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger leaving Congress to run for governor. Democrats think they can hold on to the seat with Eugene Vindman, an Army veteran who played a role in former President Trump’s first impeachment. The Republican nominee for the slot is Derrick Anderson, a former Army Green Beret.
“If we're winning Virginia-7, or coming close to winning, we think we're going to have a really good night,” a GOP strategist said.
In a sign of the importance of the state, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) campaigned with Vindman in the district late last month. And Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will stop in Virginia on Monday, the day before Election Day.
Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts
Two GOP incumbents are facing tough reelection bids in the Hawkeye........