I know the conventional wisdom is that this election is too close to call. And it is. Predictions on the outcome are little better than guesses.

Still, this is Washington. And while prognostications in U.S. politics is fraught with risk, it doesn’t stop most of us — even though we know that, if you are right, nobody cares, and if you are wrong, it goes on your Wikipedia page forever.

Predictions are pedestrian, oftentimes biased, and generally uninteresting. But the reasoning behind them might occasionally offer something of value.

So, here’s the uninteresting part: I think that Donald Trump is going to win. As to what might be of value, I could start by offering some sort of geeky Washington insider piece of data, such as how new voter registration in critically important Pennsylvania has been trending in Republicans’ favor for more than a year now.

But that’s not the reason I think Trump is going to win.

I could, instead, offer an interesting anecdote from a high-ranking Republican from North Carolina, who was adamant that Trump would win: “Mick, North Carolina is a true swing state. But what people don’t realize is that it swings on the issues, not necessarily the candidates. In 2016, the No. 1 issue in the state was the economy. In 2020, the No. 1 issue........

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