As the Russian invasion of Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, several international observers are beginning to question how the war will end. Some have argued that Ukraine cannot win. Others believe that the war is heading toward a stalemate. Still others have claimed that aid to Ukraine is too expensive, and these individuals want the international community to scale back its assistance efforts to this Eastern European state.
Given these misguided and misinformed takes, this crowd has called for Ukraine to be forced into a peace agreement with Russia to stop the fighting. They believe that a ceasefire would save lives. They also think that this would end the war. Finally, they assume the ceasefire would be upheld.
These assumptions, however, are all incorrect. If Ukraine is forced to sign a ceasefire agreement with Russia, then history suggests that the Russian Federation will just wait for the international community to shift its focus elsewhere before regrouping its forces and launching another invasion. This would lead to an even greater, more devastating conflict in Europe.
This is not a farfetched scenario. Over the past few decades, Russia has repeatedly violated ceasefires and treaties, to the point that it simply cannot be trusted to honor any commitment. Nothing in Russia's behavior suggests that it is trustworthy or would uphold agreements with Ukraine. In fact, history has shown otherwise.
Take, for example, the Minsk Agreements. During the first Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Russian forces entered the Donbas and occupied........