We’re desperate to know who’ll win the presidency.
We become like the sailor who’ll choose “any port in a storm” — a phrase that began life in the erotic 1749 British novel “Fannie Hill” and migrated to American politics in 1841 as Winfield Scott’s slogan in his primary campaign for president.
Today we aren’t in search of ports, but rather any number that might help predict the general election outcome, as we thrash about in a sea of uncertainty.
Some suggest winning a state’s primary is a sign of candidate strength there.
It might sound slightly sensible at first blush.
But while President Biden did far better than Donald Trump in South Carolina, would you give the Democrat the edge there? Nonsensical.
Winning a state in a primary or caucus has almost no bearing on the ability to carry it in a general election.
In 1972, World War II hero and anti-Vietnam War movement leader George McGovern (D) won nomination contests in 21 states. He lost 20 of those states in the general election.
In the 2012 general election, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) lost more than half the states he’d won........