Heading into an election year with good economic numbers and bad polls has some political economists puzzled, but the connecting thread seems to be affordability. Though top-line metrics, like GDP, show tentative progress, consumers report their economic experience differently, leading economists to coin the phrase “vibe-cession” to describe the disconnect. Even with the formal definition of a recession broadening over time, the current metrics would not qualify. However, what consumers are likely responding to in surveys about the economy is perhaps not whether or not the economy is in recession, but rather whether or not the economy is good. Though much can change in one election cycle, currently the approval rating and economic figures under President Biden most-closely resemble the reelection figures of former President George H.W. Bush —who lost.
Issue polling shows that economic concerns make up the majority of issues that voters deem important in the upcoming presidential election, but even taking a longer view of the........