Are migrating Democrats turning Florida blue?

For long-time residents of Florida, who enjoy the state’s low taxes, safe streets and sensible pro-business policies, the recent special election was their worst nightmare come true.

Millions of people have moved to the Sunshine State in recent years, particularly during the pandemic, attracted to a pleasant quality of life, an unobtrusive government and, for sure, wonderful weather. Among that throng have been many Democrats fleeing New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California and other blue states, driven out mainly by those states’ burdensome taxes and high crime rates.

For years, Floridians (and Texans, who have also welcomed large numbers of blue-state refugees) have watched this in-migration with concern, wondering when newly arrived Democrats would start to turn their state blue.

In Palm Beach, a prime destination for New York billionaires, those fears have been magnified. In a special election for a state district that includes Mar-a-Lago, President Trump’s famous club, a Democrat just defeated a Republican to claim a seat that the Republican incumbent won by 19 points in 2024, in a district Trump won by 11 points.

What are voters thinking? Do they really want to kill the golden goose that has made Florida so livable? Were they lashing out against Donald Trump, willing to sacrifice the benefits of GOP administration just to show their fury?

Some suggest the defeat of Jon Maples, the Trump-endorsed Republican running in Florida’s 87th district, is a sign of Trump’s declining popularity. Others blame complacency and low turnout — South Florida residents may be so accustomed to Republicans winning that many didn’t bother to vote.

It might have been both of these things. Trump called in his social media post for people to choose the Republican candidate, whom he called a “very successful Businessman and Civic Leader” he also wrote (in his signature all-caps style), “ALL GREAT PATRIOTS IN FLORIDA STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 87: GET OUT AND VOTE FOR JON MAPLES.” But he seemed worried, perhaps appropriately, about the so-called “enthusiasm gap” that can bedevil incumbent parties and candidates, especially in off-cycle elections. Turnout in the contest was not high, coming in below 29 percent; Emily Gregory won by fewer than 800 votes.

But this is not the only surprising win for Democrats in recent special elections. The New York Times reports that since November 2024, Democrats have taken over “more than two dozen” legislative seats in red and purple states, including Arkansas, New Hampshire, and Texas. Republicans, although they have fended off some challenges, have not gained any seats from Democrats.

Part of that lopsided tally stems from the blowout wins by the Republicans in 2024 — not only nationally but also at the state level. And although the out-of-power party usually scores well in the midterms, Floridians are especially on edge, worried that their state’s success might contain the seeds of its eventual undoing.

District 87 is entirely located within Palm Beach County, one of only eight of Florida’s 67 counties that hosts more registered Democrats than Republicans. District 87’s 308,000 Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 13,000. There are also 234,000 registered independents. If independents broke towards Democrats in this race, as polls indicate they are doing nationally, that alone could have swung the results in Gregory’s favor.

Democrats have, some claim, latched onto a winning message: affordability. Gregory talked about the soaring cost of housing and homeowners’ insurance in Florida, and about the state’s large number of people without health insurance (11 percent, one of the nation’s highest). Like most Democrats, her solutions rely on augmenting the role of government — she wants the state to provide catastrophic insurance and to expand Medicaid.

“Florida remains one of just ten states that refuses to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, leaving thousands of working families and seniors without affordable coverage,” Gregory writes on her website. If Gregory wants to understand why her state has declined to expand Medicaid, she should study New York’s experience with the program.

New York’s Medicaid expenditures have doubled in the last 10 years — a key reason the state is so deeply in the red.

Florida has 23 million residents, compared to just 20 million in New York, but its budget, at $117 billion, is less than half that of the Empire State’s $254 billion budget. Florida’s budget is closer to that of New York City, home to approximately 8.5 million people. That’s why Florida’s taxes are lower — and that’s a large part of why the Sunshine State’s economy is booming and New York’s governor is begging high-income earners to move back from Palm Beach and pay the high taxes needed to support her state’s welfare programs.

The Palm Beach seat-flip was not the only upset recently scored by Democrats in Florida. In another special election, Democrat Brian Nathan appears poised to win a state Senate seat in West Tampa and parts of Hillsborough County formerly held by a Republican. Most startling was the election last December of the first Democrat to become mayor of Miami in almost 30 years.

But Florida is not going blue any time soon. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 1.5 million. They have a supermajority in the state House, which won’t be threatened even if Nathan wins. But Democrats are targeting Florida, and across the nation they are, ironically, winning on the “affordability” issue — even though the most expensive places to live in the U.S. right now are all in blue states.

Between now and the midterm elections, Republicans need to deliver programs that will lower the cost of living. Inflation under President Joe Biden boosted prices overall by 20 percent; Republicans now are expected (unfairly) to fix that. That puts even more pressure on winning the war against Iran and opening the Strait of Hormuz, to allow more oil to flow, which will immediately bring down prices.

Gasoline prices soared to $5 under Biden, and his approval ratings never recovered. Trump could suffer a similar fate.

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim and Company.

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