The last presidential debate sunk Joe Biden’s political career and propelled Donald Trump (briefly) to the prohibitive favorite in the race. Such a dramatic move was not likely, but still was possible. Similarly, the upcoming match between Vice President Harris and Trump could move the race, but it’s unlikely to do so.

Of course, the wrong gaffe on the wrong issue might just be enough to shift enough votes to make one a real favorite before November.

Despite what the various predictors say, be they the gamblers, credible analysts or the laughable, the election is currently a toss-up. At the writing of this piece, Kamala Harris leads in the RealClearPolitics ballot test by just under 2 points, easily within the margin of error. In the battleground states, five are within 1 point or tied (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania) and two are within 1 and a half percent (Michigan and Wisconsin).

Leaving those seven states as undecided, Harris leads Trump 226-217 in Electoral College votes. Assigning each state according to their current lean puts Harris up 273-246, with Pennsylvania (19 votes) tied.

If the polls underestimate Trump, as they did in both 2016 and 2020, the former president could actually be in the lead.

A net swing of just 1.5 percent to Trump mean a Trump sweep of the Great Lakes states and a 312-226 win (less than 1 percent swing is an outright win). However, after being burned two races in a row, pollsters may have improved their sampling to accurately gauge Trump’s support. After all, in 2022 Republicans were overestimated by much of the polling and Trump’s hand-picked candidates in key Senate races were all........

© The Hill