Gaming out a nuclear Iran |
Gaming out a nuclear Iran
President Trump has a new offer on the table from Iran — a climbdown by both sides, with the promise of future negotiations. Trump has (correctly) rejected this offer.
Why was that the right move? Because, as Trump himself noted, the Iranians refused to stand down on their nuclear ambitions and have made it clear they have no intention of ending them.
That is the key issue for any resolution. Once the conflict started and the U.S. and Israelis showed they could strike the country at will, the end of Iran’s nuclear program turned from a top strategic priority to a strategic necessity. Any possibility that the Iranian leadership would not develop and manufacture multiple nuclear devices disappeared — although that possibility was always very, very low.
What would a nuclear Iran do? Or, more particularly, what would its current, murderous fanatical leaders do?
First, we should consider each nation. Israel is a country of just 8,500 square miles — smaller than New Jersey — with a population of about 10 million, concentrated in the northern half of the country. A majority of the country is the barren Negev Desert. Iran is nearly the size of Alaska, with more than 92 million people.
A nuclear attack — even the successful detonation of a single device — would be devastating to Israel in a way that would never be the case for Iran. If Iran were to land just a few nuclear bombs, it would essentially eliminate Israel, not to mention the deadly fallout through the Middle East and beyond.
But would Iran launch such an attack? Considering that the faction ruling the country, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has continuously funded terrorist groups attacking Israel and destabilizing Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, is anything beyond the pale? The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has proven........