It’s going to be one of the most important speeches Donald Trump has ever made.

Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention next week will be seen by tens of millions, or more. It’s the former president’s chance to set the stage for his election. If he hits a home run, he could stretch his lead to a near-insurmountable level. If he blows it, he could lose everything — the presidency, his money and his freedom.

With the stakes higher than ever, can Trump deliver? He will need to reject his worst instincts and ditch his rally persona in favor of a direct, disciplined speech. Given his opponent’s problems, that Trump cannot get to 50 percent in the national or battleground state polls should be ringing alarm bells for his campaign.

Trump will formally challenge Biden to at least two more debates (if Biden is still in the race). That’s the easiest call for Team Trump. Biden cannot duck them, and there is no way he can keep it together for the duration of both.

The most important thing for Trump’s campaign to keep in mind is that the presumptive GOP nominee’s real audience is quite small. The vast majority of Republicans are in his camp and the vast majority of Democrats detest him. Trump is really talking to undecided voters and reluctant voters. The reluctant voters are those who dislike both candidates but whose antipathy is driving them to whomever they consider to be the lesser of two evils. Without those soft voters, Trump can’t win (nor can Biden and Kamala Harris).

Both Trump and Biden are running ahead of their approval numbers. Trump’s RealClearPolitics approval is just 42 percent, with his ballot test 5 points above. But Trump cannot win with just his approval percentage; the most recent YouGov benchmark shows how soft that critical marginal support is. While his overall approval is at 41 percent, it’s only at 35 percent with Independents. With Hispanics,........

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