Ukraine’s migration challenge won’t end with a peace deal

In 2022, millions of Ukrainians crossed the border carrying suitcases and hoping to return home within weeks or months. Four years later, many of them have built lives elsewhere. 

That is why a peace agreement may end the war without ending Ukraine’s migration crisis. 

Around 5.6 million Ukrainians remain abroad because of the full-scale war, according to the Center for Economic Strategy. More than 4.4 million people who fled Ukraine were under temporary protection in European Union countries as of July, according to Eurostat.

These numbers are not simply statistics about people waiting to go home. They represent millions of lives that have continued while the war has continued. Children have entered local schools. Parents have found jobs. Families have rented homes and built new social networks. Some have learned new languages and established careers. What began as temporary displacement has, for many, become an established life. 

That does not mean Ukrainians no longer want to return. Research by the Center for Economic Strategy found that 43 percent of Ukrainian refugees plan to return to Ukraine, while 36 percent do not plan to return. Among those who intend to come back, nearly 80 percent say they would do so only after the war is definitively over, and security conditions improve. 

The difference is important. For many Ukrainians, the question will not be whether they love their........

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