Swalwell gains traction in crowded California governor's race |
Swalwell gains traction in crowded California governor’s race
Rep. Eric Swalwell’s (D-Calif.) campaign to succeed California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is gaining traction as the threat of a Republican upset grows in the crowded contest with no clear front-runner less than three months out from the primary.
New polling shows Swalwell’s support has ticked up in the Golden State’s nonpartisan primary, from which the top two vote-getters will advance to the general election, regardless of party. Buoyed by his national profile and notable endorsements, Swalwell appears in a position to edge past top party rivals, including former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and billionaire Tom Steyer.
But the race is still wide-open, with a plurality of voters still undecided as more than a half-dozen Democrats split their base’s support. The state party has called for candidates to consider dropping out to consolidate support, as strategists and experts raise alarms that two Republicans could advance in the deep blue stronghold.
“The polls are really good for Swalwell, not only obviously because they show he’s ahead of other Democrats, but also because they’ll help with fundraising,” said Jack Pitney, a politics professor at Claremont McKenna College. “A lot of Democratic contributors out there are looking for a horse to bet on, and the morning line seems to favor Swalwell.”
Swalwell scored an endorsement last week from SEIU California, a major union in the state. And he won a plurality of delegates at the state party’s convention last month, 10 points ahead of Steyer, though no candidate notched enough support for an official endorsement.
California Democratic strategist Garry South, a veteran of four California gubernatorial campaigns, said Swalwell has “done surprisingly well” in the race, largely by virtue of the high name ID he earned as a manager in Trump’s second impeachment, as well as through social media and cable TV dominance. Swalwell notably announced his campaign on “Jimmy Kimmel Live” in November.
“It would take millions and millions of dollars to buy that kind of name recognition starting from scratch,” South said.
“Overall, the Swalwell campaign has just been smartly run from the very beginning … and I think that shows in his sort of bubbling up to the top of the Democratic field,” he added.
Swalwell has taken heat this month from Steyer’s campaign over whether the congressman meets the state’s residency requirement, but experts suggested those attacks either won’t stick or could elevate the lawmaker’s profile.
An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey released last week found Swalwell’s support at 17 percent, up from 12 percent in December and 4 points ahead of his next-closest competitor, Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton.
“If the election were held today, this would be between Swalwell and Steve Hilton,” South said.
Steyer and Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco were tied for third place in the Emerson poll at 11 percent support. Porter, who was neck and neck with Swalwell in a December survey, dropped to 8 percent. A quarter of voters were undecided.
But another March poll, from the University of California, Berkeley, Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research and Politico, found Hilton leading with 19 percent support, followed by Steyer at 13 percent. Swalwell, Bianco and Porter were tied at 11 percent, and another 17 percent of respondents were undecided.
“This is not only the most crowded primary field in California political history, it’s the most unclear primary that we’ve seen here in several decades. … In most years, by this point, a very strong front-runner has emerged,” said Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist and a political communications professor at the University of Southern California and the University of California, Berkeley.
“Swalwell has begun to emerge with a small lead in some of the polls,” he continued. “But under more normal circumstances, a few points wouldn’t be enough to consider a candidate to be a strong front-runner.”
South noted one endorsement that would likely tip the race’s scale: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
Pelosi endorsing Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) in the open Senate race to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) “really made him lap the rest of the field,” South said.
“She’s the grande dame of California politics still, even though she’s not Speaker anymore,” he told The Hill.
Other groups are still divided over the field. The California Federation of Labor Unions this week endorsed four gubernatorial candidates — Swalwell, Porter, Steyer and Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa — calling the field ” a spoil of riches.”
Coupled with California’s unique top-two primary system, the crowded field has created a rare opening for Republicans in the deep blue stronghold.
In a model developed by California Democratic data expert Paul Mitchell, using polling and betting market information to assess thousands of potential primary outcomes, the most likely outcome was a Democrat-versus-Republican race. But two Republicans emerged as the top vote-getters in roughly 20 percent of hypothetical outcomes, raising red flags for Democrats.
California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks issued an open letter to gubernatorial candidates ahead of the March 6 filing deadline, urging candidates that “if you do not have a viable path to make it to the General Election, do not file to place your name on the ballot for the Primary Election.”
Candidates who may drop out now, though, still will appear on the June ballot and could siphon votes.
“That ends up being a tax on Democrats’ hopes to get one of their candidates over 20 percent so that they’re safe,” Mitchell said.
Jim Brulte, a former state senator who served as chair of the California GOP, suggested the scenario of two Republicans in the general is still a possibility, but he didn’t see it as “probable.”
“It depends upon how Matt Mahan does and who he goes after,” he said, referring to the Democratic San Jose mayor, who could serve as a spoiler and alter which two candidates advance to the November election after his late entry in the contest.
Democrats could also get some reprieve if one of the Republicans surges ahead.
“Ironically, if the margin between the two Republicans stays close, they could both make the runoff, but if Hilton begins to open up a lead, then it becomes much more likely that he ends up in the general election against the leading Democrat,” said Schnur. “In other words, the Democrats do face a potential problem right now, but the person who could solve it for them is Hilton.”
California Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said the biggest challenge for candidates across both parties is rallying voter attention on the race.
“Voters, they don’t know any of these people, and they’re looking for information. They’re looking for awareness that there’s even an election,” Stutzman said. “We will never see anyone pull away in this field. I think that would be very surprising, given the dynamics.”
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