Rubio's Munich moment gives him burst of momentum

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Rubio’s Munich moment gives him burst of momentum

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is coming out of the Munich Security Conference with fresh momentum after a well-received speech to world leaders.

Rubio received a standing ovation for his 30-minute remarks that sought to ease European anxieties about U.S. foreign policy and emphasize the importance of the transatlantic partnership, a year after Vice President Vance gave a harsher address to the same conference.

The speech comes amid questions about whether Vance or Rubio, who has seen his position in the Trump administration strengthen and has become the subject of 2028 speculation, is the more likely successor to President Trump — a potential rivalry that puts divisions within the GOP on stark display.

“Marco continues to enhance himself both in Trump World and internationally,” said Republican strategist Brian Seitchik, who called the speech “a win” for Rubio’s standing in the party as chatter builds about his future plans.

“During the first Trump administration, and even during sort of those wilderness years, Marco wasn’t really a part of the MAGA world. He was always viewed somewhat through the prism of a former rival. … So he has really positioned himself well among Trump voters and enhanced his stature in the party.”

Rubio’s speech in Germany last week reiterated the Trump administration’s calls for tighter borders and warnings of “civilizational erasure,” but he took a notably reassuring tone amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Europe over Trump’s push for control of Greenland and strict tariffs on allies.

“We belong together,” Rubio said of the U.S. and Europe.

“And so this is why we Americans may sometimes come off as a little direct and urgent in our counsel. This is why President Trump demands seriousness and reciprocity from our friends here in Europe. The reason why, my friends, is because we care deeply.”

Rubio’s remarks stood in contrast to Vance’s address to the international conference last year, when the newly inaugurated vice president accused European leaders of stifling opposing viewpoints, retreating from “fundamental values” and not focusing on mass migration.

Vance’s address prompted pushback from European officials, while Rubio’s was met with a standing ovation.

Republican strategist Susan Del Percio, who does not support Trump, said Rubio “gets the balance just right.”

“Unlike Vance, Rubio gets nuance and is very good at making it look like he wasn’t breaking from President Trump,” Del Percio said. “He is not doing anything to upset the president but has created some nuance in the right places.”

“He’s not willing to go scorched earth on everything,” Del Percio added. “Whereas Vance who feels like the more scorched earth the better. Everyone tries to please the president and they don’t realize that causing a problem for the president is not pleasing the president, even if he likes the loyalty.”

The Munich speech comes at a critical time for the transatlantic partnership.

“After Vance’s incredibly bombastic, hot wind out of the far-right speech last year … There [were] a lot of different voices, from right-of-center Secretary Rubio to far-left-of-center AOC [Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.)] to just left-of-center [California Gov.] Gavin Newsom, all of whom, in their own way, set out to, in ways authentic to them, reassure Europe,” Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said of the several U.S. officials who took part in the event.

It also comes as political observers look toward the future of the GOP, more than a year into Trump’s second term.

“It’s really just a new level of confirmation for what has always been a Rubio strength, and what made him a prospective presidential candidate back in 2016. He is a dynamic thinker and communicator, with an incredible ability to engage and mobilize audiences around the politics of a policy vision,” Republican strategist Kevin Madden said.

“The major difference is time. In 2012, he was on the prospective VP list because he was fresh, new and represented a new line of leadership in the party,” Madden said.

“The added benefit of time is that he now has the experience of secretary of State who is directly involved with forging and executing a policy blueprint. The Munich speech helps cement his stature on the global stage.”

Asked whether he might support Rubio at the top of the ticket, Trump said Monday he’s still “got three years to go” and doesn’t have to “worry” about who takes the party’s mantle after his second term ends. But he declined to give Vance his total endorsement as he praised Rubio’s Munich appearance.

“JD is fantastic, and Marco is. They’re both fantastic, I think, really. And I think Marco did a great job in Munich,” the president said.

Rubio, who ran against Trump in 2016 for the White House, was once highly critical of his current boss. After Rubio dropped out of the race following his loss to Trump in the former senator’s home state of Florida, he eventually repaired his relationship with his onetime rival. Eight years later, Rubio was in the mix to be Trump’s vice presidential pick, before Trump ended up tapping Vance instead. Trump eventually made Rubio, long seen as a foreign policy hawk, his choice for secretary of State.

Rubio told Vanity Fair that he would be “one of the first people to support” Vance if he ran for the White House. And Vance — himself a former “never-Trump guy” before snagging Trump’s support for his Senate bid — dismissed speculation last year about a rivalry with Rubio, saying he’ll talk with Trump about 2028 after the midterms.

The vice president on Tuesday also praised Rubio for a “great speech” and again dispelled the narrative of an ongoing rivalry.

Vance said Rubio’s speech “very, very ably delivered” their common message that European nations are “doing a lot to sabotage themselves” and that the U.S. “would like that to stop.”

“I heard somebody say that I was the bad cop, so that Marco could be a good cop. … The reason why the president, or Marco or me, talk about borders, the reason why we talk about them spending more on their own security, the reason that we talk about them more- becoming a vibrant economy again, is that we want Europe to thrive,” he told Fox News.

“I think the president is very smartly saying: We’ve got three years to go, and how about everybody focuses on the job the American people elected us to do, rather than something that is very far in the future?” Vance said, adding there “just isn’t any conflict” between the leading GOP trio.

But “anything can happen” in the years before the next presidential cycle, said Jason Cabel Roe, who was the national media spokesperson for Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign.

“He’s as much as said he would defer to Vance, but you know, maybe one or both falls out of favor,” Roe said, stressing that they are “the two most likely presidential aspirants on the Republican side.”

“I don’t see them behaving as competitors right now. I see them behaving as allies, and I imagine that will continue to be the case up until the time if and when one or both of them decide to run for president. But I think they’re very different styles of what MAGA is today.”

Vance’s style appears “more Trumpian” than Rubio’s, Roe said, characterizing the pair’s contrasting Munich speeches as “good cop, bad cop.”

“There’s a smoothness to Marco’s style that I think is more effective but probably doesn’t excite the MAGA base as much as Vance’s style.”

Seitchik suggested that “maybe substantively, they’re in the same place” on foreign policy, but that the reception comes down to their demeanors.

“Sometimes Marco’s language is more inviting for folks who may disagree, whereas Vance’s is more direct,” he said.

Pew Research data released this month found the public has a more negative than positive view of both Trump and Vance, with net-negative minus 18 and minus 14 points, respectively. Rubio was also underwater, but by a smaller margin of minus 10 points, though more voters hadn’t heard of him.

A January Harvard CAPS/Harris poll found Vance as the clear favorite for GOP voters as the next Republican presidential candidate, with 53 percent support, but Rubio pulled in double-digit support to notch third place with 17 percent. Donald Trump Jr. was in second, with 21 percent, and all other contenders got single-digit scores.

Referring to the dynamic with Vance, Madden said, “it’s too early to assess any competitive horserace dynamics like that.”

But Julian Zelizer, a professor of public affairs and history at Princeton University, said Rubio is “positing himself as the statesman of Trump 2.0 and doing so as Vance struggles to gain traction.”

“That said, he will have to navigate the baggage of the turbulent, chaotic and controversial president for whom he works,” Zelizer added.

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