Trump’s gauge on gas prices spurs GOP anxieties ahead of midterms

President Trump’s assertion that high gas prices may be here to stay from now until November is exactly the opposite message of what GOP lawmakers want to hear in a midterm year, underscoring how the Iran war has become bad news for Republicans, who risk losing control of Congress.

The war has also made it more difficult for Republicans to message on affordability, an issue they were already losing on.

Trump did not help matters when he did not give a direct answer on where he believes gas prices will be ahead of the midterms, telling Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo on “Sunday Morning Futures” that he only hopes so.

“I mean, I think so. It could be, it could be, or the same, or maybe a little bit higher, but it should be around the same,” the president said.

It’s possible Trump was shifting expectations after weeks in which he and his aides had suggested prices would fall, asking the public to brace themselves for increased costs only in the short-term.

But as the war stretches well past the four to six weeks Trump initially floated, this past weekend saw no real progress in turning a fragile ceasefire into a longer deal between the U.S. and Iran. By Monday, the president was instituting a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for ships coming and going from Iranian ports, an action that might hurt Iran and its allies but would also not lower prices for Americans.

“Candidly, it does worry me,” one Republican operative said, adding that gas prices “are advertised in big, light up signs on every corner, and so it’s something that people tangibly see every single day.”

“I do think gas prices need to come down in order for Republicans to properly convey our message,” the operative said. “It does obviously create a bit of a challenge with gas prices rising. However, I do think Americans and voters are willing to give the president a little bit more time with the war in Iran.”

Richard Stern, a vice president with former Vice President Mike Pence’s think tank, Advancing American Freedom, said the president’s comments are an indication of a more cautious approach.

“He has learned along with anybody who trades on a regular basis to never tempt fate and say you know what the prices of anything are going to do,” Stern said.

A CBS News poll released Sunday found that 51 percent of respondents characterized gas prices as “a financial hardship” and “difficult,” while 28 percent called gas prices “an inconvenience but not difficult.” Only 8 percent said their finances have not been affected by gas prices.

And on Monday, the nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races toward Democrats, citing “an increasingly sour national environment.” Meanwhile, Decision Desk HQ’s average shows congressional Democrats leading congressional Republicans 44.7 percent to 41.2 percent on a generic ballot.

Trump may seek to shift such tides when he travels to Nevada and Arizona later this week, two crucial states he won in 2024.

He is expected to tout tax breaks in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed last year, though he has admitted messaging on the monumental legislation hasn’t penetrated the public as much as he’d like. He has said the same about his staff’s message on the economy, but Republicans still see some hope.

“As long as we keep our message disciplined, which is, continue talking about tax cuts nonstop, I think it’s going to be very helpful,” the unnamed GOP operative said.

The White House said in a statement that Trump looks forward to his end of the week trips.

“Once all of our objectives are achieved in Iran, including the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, these short-term disruptions will be past us and our economy will be stronger than ever before,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said.

“The President looks forward to touting this record of economic success in Arizona and Nevada – the birthplace of ‘No Tax on Tips’ – where he will highlight how the Working Families Tax Cuts are uplifting Americans from all walks of life, including service workers, law enforcement officers, seniors, and more,” Kelly said.

The Republican National Committee largely echoed the White House.

“President Trump has done more than any president to unleash American energy and dismantle the crushing regulations imposed under Joe Biden. After four years of foreign dependence that caused the highest gas prices on record, President Trump’s ‘Drill Baby Drill’ agenda has once again made the United States the world’s leading energy producer and exporter,” said Kiersten Pels, national press secretary at the Republican National Committee, in a statement to The Hill.

“He was upfront about potential short-term oil price swings during Operation Epic Fury, but the results speak for themselves: lower costs, stronger growth, and an American economy back on track,” Pels added.

Despite Trump’s “drill baby drill” campaign rhetoric, the president has spent a chunk of his second term touting getting oil from other countries.

The administration’s allies have also touted tapping into Venezuela’s oil supply following the successful U.S. strikes on the country earlier this year, along with Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West pipeline being restored to full capacity as hopeful signs for the administration.

“I’m actually more optimistic that the oil we’re producing, that our companies are getting out of Venezuela, I think those are going to come on the market a lot sooner,” Stern said.

“I think Iran is going to fold relatively soon here,” he added.

But Iranians continue to be steadfastly defiant, sometimes mocking Trump — and the increase in U.S. gas prices — on social media, suggesting them backing down may not come to fruition anytime soon despite how much the administration insists it will do so.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf noted rising gas prices at gas stations “near the White House” in a post on the social platform X on Sunday, the day after talks in Pakistan failed to produce a deal.

“Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas,” Qalibaf wrote.

Oil prices increased to more than $100 per barrel on Monday amid concern and uncertainty over Trump’s announced blockade on all Iranian ports, which went into effect on Monday.

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