GOP anxieties rise in Texas after Talarico victory |
GOP anxieties rise in Texas after Talarico victory
Republican anxieties are rising in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton will clash in a runoff race in May, as Democrats rally around the winner of their primary: state Rep. James Talarico.
Democrats have long had their sights on a big win in Texas, and they feel they’d have an excellent chance if Paxton emerges as the GOP winner. Many also thought Talarico was their stronger general election candidate compared to Rep. Jasmine Crockett, whom he defeated Tuesday.
It’s all put more pressure on President Trump, who so far has been neutral in the GOP race, to offer an endorsement.
“Talarico being the nominee makes it more important than ever that President Trump endorses John Cornyn,” said one Republican operative who works on Senate races.
In a lengthy Truth Social post on Wednesday, Trump said he would endorse “soon” and called on the candidate he does not back to drop out “immediately.”
“My Endorsements within the Republican Party have been virtually insurmountable,” he wrote, adding that “almost everyone I Endorse WINS, and wins by a lot, especially in Texas! I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE! Is that fair? We must win in November!!!”
According to the latest primary results on Wednesday, Cornyn led Paxton 41.9 percent to 40.7 percent. Rep. Wesley Hunt (D-Texas) was in third and will not make the runoff election in May.
Some Republicans noted that Cornyn performed better than expected, making them more optimistic for his chances in a runoff, particularly if Trump backs him.
“I think it gets Cornyn over the finish line,” said one Republican strategist. “I am [optimistic] only because of how Cornyn performed last night.”
“I think everybody’s assumption was it was going to be a more conservative primary electorate, and for a whole host of reasons and variables, most notably a hundred million dollars’ worth, that changed,” the strategist added, referring to the Republican establishment’s heavy spending for Cornyn.
“Cornyn comes in with momentum,” they continued. “And I think that momentum also leads to a lot of pressure on the White House and the president to have to make a decision.”
Polling shows that a Trump endorsement could make a difference with the conservative base. A University of Houston Hobby School poll released last month found that 55 percent of Republican primary voters said they would be more likely to support a candidate backed by Trump.
Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist and Cornyn’s former campaign manager, predicted that a Trump endorsement of Cornyn would impact turnout from the conservative activist base of the party.
“The turnout might drop by as much as 50 percent here,” he said.
Cornyn’s chances of winning a contested primary were heavily doubted following backlash over his work with Democrats on gun safety legislation following the Uvalde school shooting in 2022.
Also, in 2023, Cornyn said he believed Trump’s “time has passed him by” in terms of whether he could win another election. Cornyn later endorsed Trump, saying the president “was right and I was wrong.”
Paxton has his own flaws as a candidate, however.
Paxton’s wife, Angela Paxton, last year wrote that she was filing for divorce on “biblical grounds” after 38 years of marriage. She alleged in her divorce filing that her husband had committed adultery, according to The Texas Tribune, and wrote that the couple had not been living together for more than a year.
Ken Paxton was impeached by the Texas state House in 2023 before being acquitted by the state’s Senate in a trial that extensively aired allegations of an extramarital affair.
Polling shows Cornyn performing better against Talarico than Paxton would in a hypothetical match-up.
An Emerson College poll conducted in January showed Paxton and Talarico tied at 46 percent in a hypothetical match-up. The same poll showed Cornyn leading Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent.
However, the same University of Houston Hobby School poll showed Paxton defeating Talarico by 2 points in a hypothetical match-up. The same poll showed Cornyn beating Talarico by 1 point.
“Trump is under heavy pressure from [Senate Majority Leader John] Thune and company to endorse Cornyn, especially now that Talarico is the nominee,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor supporting Paxton.
Eberhart, who was at Paxton’s primary night event, predicted that the runoff environment will be better for the attorney general.
“This was Cornyn’s shot to fend off his challenger by getting over 50 percent and he couldn’t do it,” he said. “The runoff voters will be even less friendly territory for Cornyn.”
Gregg Keller, a spokesperson for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC, called the state attorney general “the prohibitive favorite against career RINO John Cornyn.”
“Texas runoff electorates are far more conservative than general election electorates,” he said.
A separate Emerson College poll released last month showed Paxton leading Cornyn 46 percent to 33 percent with Trump voters.
The Republican strategist argued the runoff could have been avoided if the White House had worked with Senate Republican leadership’s efforts to boost Cornyn.
“This part of it is going to be even more painful, but they’ve just got to rip the Band-Aid off and figure it out,” the strategist said.
“If these two go at it until March 26 and there is no presidential involvement, it’s going to be ugly, it’s going to be expensive, it’s going to be brutal,” they continued.
“Whoever comes out of it in that scenario, I would say it would be Paxton, you are at that point spending money on behalf of Talarico in the process.”
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