Get ready for this election’s “October Surprise.” In a Senate election cycle that favors the GOP, the Democrats are so far out-performing predictions and holding strong.
They are in position to win in races in Arizona, Ohio, Maryland, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while trailing in a tight race in Montana.
Republicans, meanwhile, are stunned to be raising money to defend what they thought were safe seats in Florida and Texas. Both are surprisingly close contests.
Last week, the reliable Cook Political Report wrote that Democrats are "defying political gravity" in Senate races, Until last week, they had 51 Senate seats as lean, likely or currently held by Democrats. They have now shifted Montana to a likely Republican pickup.
Last week, the RealClear Politics average of polls had Democrats leading senate races in six of seven key races.
The October surprises extend to House races.
Last week, the Cook Political Report had 24 seats in the House rated as a toss-up.
That is good news for Democrats because there are 19 House seats now held by Republicans in which most voters backed President Biden in 2020. Those congressional districts are fertile ground for Democrats to win.
And that leads to a potentially bigger surprise: History tells us that most Americans cast straight party-line votes. Voters standing by Democrats in House and........