China-U.S. relations are entering potentially the most dangerous period in decades — going even as far back as their bloody confrontation in the Korean War.

An increasingly unsettled Xi Jinping may decide that the remaining month before the presidential transition is his last opportunity to take advantage of an extremely risk-averse Biden administration and make a military move against Taiwan. Despite his public declarations that he would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan, Biden is likely to decide that the question of war and peace should now be left to his successor.

Chinese action against Taiwan would also present the incoming Trump administration with a fait accompli and a strategic dilemma — especially if Beijing eschews a full-scale invasion and goes with a blockade or seizes Kinmen (Quemoy) or another Taiwanese island. Xi may calculate that a returning President Trump will be reluctant to start his second term fighting to reverse "moderate" Chinese aggression, just as Biden was willing to accept “a limited incursion” of Ukraine in 2022. In his first term, Trump failed even to try to unwind Vladimir Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, which the Obama-Biden administration had meekly accepted — perhaps fulfilling Obama’s 2012 promise to Putin of post-reelection “flexibility.”

The prospects of Xi acting precipitously against Taiwan have increased as a result of recent developments in China. After Xi spent more than a decade of ostensible anti-corruption purges placing Xi loyalists in key positions throughout the Chinese Communist political and military establishment, he continues to unearth officials he deems........

© The Hill