Trump wants an Iwo Jima moment in Iran; will Americans be OK with the fallout?

Trump wants an Iwo Jima moment in Iran; will Americans be OK with the fallout?

The last few years on social media, you may have seen some disturbing videos. Russian and Ukrainian troops being hunted down by drones. The first person view from the drone shows them being tracked, cornered and then killed. Some try to run, some try to shoot at them or use their rifles as bats, some take cover, some beg the camera for mercy hoping the operator of said drone grants it, and others give up and pray knowing they will die soon. Now imagine that being United States Marines and sailors.

The news that the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) might be headed to the Middle East to reinforce the 31st MEU, which was already ordered there, raises the odds that ground troops might play a part in President Trump’s war with Iran. It is pretty apparent that despite Trump’s claims that Iran has been beaten and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s claim that Iran’s military has been destroyed, Iran is still very much in the fight.

Iran’s obvious move to close the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t obvious to the Trump administration and how this war’s objectives have switched from changing regimes, to no nukes, to opening up shipping for oil. The markets don’t lie and Trump is hoping his predictions that gas prices going up are temporary turns out to be true even though it doesn’t look that way. Trump needs the Strait of Hormuz opened and the Marines might be the obvious and fastest solution to getting that done.

There is no doubt the Marines can take the various islands in the Strait and monitor the coast of Iran for any threats, thereby allowing ships to pass more easily. The Navy and Marines will also lend support with ships, helicopters and aircraft to provide air support, supplies and reinforcements if need be. The Air Force will turn to the plane that everyone but Air Force brass loves, the A-10 Warthog to take out targets that might endanger the Marines.

And Trump will love all of that and declare the battle won. He has used language dating back to World War II when talking about this war. Dropping phrases like “unconditional surrender” despite no one knowing how that applies to Iran, Trump has leaned into those types of words and images to sell that the war is going well. The Marines landing on Iranian soil would make a great image for him to prove that he is victorious.

We all know of Joe Rosenthal’s famous picture of the raising of the American flag on Mount Suribachi on Iwo Jima. Trump will want to have a similar image to get the American public hyped about an unpopular war and to boost his own image as a warfighting President along the likes of Abraham Lincoln or Franklin Roosevelt. But what Trump needs to understand is what happened after the Iwo Jima photo was released to the public.

Newspapers around the country started publishing the names of the dead and the toll was staggering: 6,800 Americans died, many after the photo of the victorious flag raising was published. Roosevelt had to justify these deaths as part of a greater good. He had to do the same with the subsequent invasion of Okinawa and no doubt the number of casualties influenced Harry Truman to drop atomic bombs on Japan instead of invading it.

Will the number of potential casualties in Iran match that of Iwo Jima or Okinawa? Not even close. But instead of learning that Marines were killed and later finding out their names, we now run the risk of seeing them killed on the battlefield. Some families will know their loved one was killed by seeing a social media video before they are notified by the Defense Department.

This is something that we haven’t dealt with before as we haven’t been in any major conflicts since we left Afghanistan. Warfare has changed and the usage of drones to both kill enemy combatants and provide propaganda by broadcasting those kills has increased exponentially. There is no doubt that the Iranians who have been training for years for asymmetrical warfare with experiences in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza are prepared for the Marines. Add to that the advances in drone technology from Ukraine and you will understand that while we might easily take Hormuz, the Iranians won’t back down at all.

Trump, Hegseth and company were desperate to sell Americans that fighting Iran would be quick and easy. “We only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down,” was the vibe that was given in the first few days of the bombings. Anyone who knows about that infamous quote knows that said structure didn’t come crashing down.

Trump needs to prepare himself not just for Marines taking islands or coastlines, but for what comes after. It can (and probably will) devolve into asymmetrical warfare that we have not experienced firsthand. Will Trump be strong enough, empathetic enough, and mature enough to handle that adversity and potential casualties? For a man who loves to claim quick victories before they happen, it doesn’t look good.

Jos Joseph is a recipient of the Military Reporters and Editors award for Best Commentary / Opinion. A graduate of Harvard and Ohio State, he is a Marine veteran who served in Iraq. He currently lives in Anaheim, Calif.

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