Trump’s Strait of Hormuz gambit approaches zero hour

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Strait of Hormuz blockade starting 

Congress’s busy week back 

Orbán loses prime minister role 

President Trump’s threatened blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is set to come into force at 10 a.m. EDT on Monday, a maneuver meant to disrupt Iran’s chokehold on the crucial corridor for global energy trade.  

Trump announced the plan on Sunday, after no agreement was reached during talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, the day before, the first direct conversations between U.S. and Iranian officials since 1979. 

U.S. Central Command said the blockade would be enforced “impartially against vessels of all nations.” It said ships traveling between non-Iranian ports would still be allowed to enter the strait. 

CENTCOM forces “will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, in accordance with the President’s proclamation,” it said in a post on the social platform X.  

Vice President Vance told reporters Saturday night the 20 hours of marathon negotiations were “substantive,” but there was no headway toward a deal. 

“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” he said. 

Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday the blockade would begin shortly while touting U.S. efforts to remove mines that Iran has placed in the strait. He also suggested other countries would assist in the blockade but didn’t elaborate. 

“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country,” he said. 

Vance, who represented the U.S. in the talks along with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, pointed to Iranian officials refusing to make a commitment to not seek a nuclear weapon as a reason for the impasse. 

Iranian negotiators accused the U.S. side of making maximalist demands and shifting the goalposts in talks. Trump, in an interview with Fox News on Sunday morning, suggested hopes for a deal were still alive.  

“They haven’t left the bargaining table. I predict they come back, and they give us everything we want — and I told my people, I want everything. I don’t want 90 percent, I don’t want 95 percent. I told them I want everything. They have no cards,” Trump said.  

At the same time, Trump has ramped up threats to resume attacks on Iran. 

“Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully ‘LOCKED AND LOADED,’ and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran!” Trump said. 

The U.S. and Iranian governments are approaching halfway through a 14-day ceasefire deal. While the U.S. and Israel have halted bombing of Iran, Israel has continued pounding Lebanon, which Tehran says is a violation of the truce, and the Iranians have refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key demand on the U.S. side.  

Retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that the U.S. blockade could require tremendous naval power to pull off.  

He said Adm. Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, would likely want two aircraft carrier strikes groups, with about a dozen destroyers and frigates in the southern part of the Persian Gulf, then another half a dozen warships on the other side of the strait. 

“And you’d want to bring in the Emirati Navy, the Saudi Navy, so you try and bottle it up on both sides,” he added. “Bottom line, this is a big task, and it’s a big gamble.” 

As The Hill’s Max Rego reports, the failure of the Saturday talks leaves Trump with tough decisions with a week and a half left in the ceasefire. 

Polls have shown the American public oppose Trump’s handling of the war ahead of the ceasefire, and oil and gas prices have soared since the first U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s subsequent closure of the strait. 

Gas prices did tick down a few cents over the weekend as the ceasefire took effect, but the blockade may quickly reverse those gains. The cost of crude oil jumped to more than $100 per barrel after Trump announced the blockade. 

Rego notes the situation leaves Trump with a decision of whether to resume an unpopular war that has roiled markets and killed thousands, or end it, potentially without gaining key concessions from Iran.   

“Enjoy the current pump figures,” the powerful speaker of Iran’s parliament wrote Sunday on X. “With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.” 

▪ The Hill: Iranian Parliament speaker says U.S. didn’t gain Iran’s trust. 

▪ NerdWallet: ‘Warflation’ hits more than just gas prices. 

▪ Axios: U.S. war-ships cross strait for first time since war began. 

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY   

Pope Leo XIV defended his criticism of the U.S. war in Iran, telling reporters he has “no fear of the Trump administration” after the president called him “weak” on crime and “terrible” for foreign policy. Trump also claimed Leo was only chosen as pope because of the U.S. president. 

The Trump administration has ousted all six board members of the federal agency overseeing the Presidio of San Francisco, a national park that sits at the base of the Golden Gate Bridge, The New York Times reported. All members had been appointed by former President Biden. 

U.S. Southern Command conducted strikes on two alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the East Pacific, killing five alleged “narco-terrorists.” One passenger on one of the boats survived the strike. 

SWALWELL OUT: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.). ended his campaign for governor of California on Sunday evening following explosive allegations of sexual misconduct against him. 

Swalwell apologized for “mistakes in judgment,” while maintaining that the accusations against him are false.  

“To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s,” he said in a post on X. 

But the ramifications for Swalwell seem likely to go beyond his campaign, as The Hill’s Emily Brooks reports. 

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s (R-Fla.) push to expel or force the resignation of Swalwell and Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who admitted to having an affair with a former staffer who later died by suicide, gained support from both sides of the aisle throughout the weekend. 

Expulsion is a high bar in the House, requiring support from a two-thirds majority, but efforts to remove the two congressmen and potentially two others seem like they could get a recorded vote this week. 

Swalwell’s exit was swift after multiple women came forward in media reports starting Friday accusing him of sexual harassment and assault. 

The San Francisco Chronicle first reported a former staffer alleged Swalwell sexually assaulted her twice while she was intoxicated. CNN later reported on accusations from three additional women who accused him of sexual misconduct, including sharing unsolicited explicit messages or nude photos with them. 

Campaign staff and others who have backed him in the race quickly distanced themselves from the congressman. His two campaign co-chairs both resigned from their roles and called on him to drop out of the race, and every congressional Democrat who had supported him rescinded their endorsement. 

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) said she would force a vote to censure Swalwell over the allegations. A growing number of House Republicans and Democrats are calling on both Swalwell and Gonzales to step down or potentially face expulsion. 

Axios reported that multiple expulsion resolutions can’t be paired together, so Luna will lead one to oust Swalwell while Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández (D-N.M.) leads the one on Gonzales. The plan is for both resolutions to be introduced Tuesday with the goal of having votes on them Wednesday. 

But these efforts may extend further, leading to expulsion votes for Florida Reps. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) and Cory Mills (R). 

Cherfilus-McCormick has been accused of improperly using federal disaster funds to finance her campaign. A subpanel of the House Ethics Committee found she committed 25 ethical violations, and the committee is set to meet next week to discuss what disciplinary action against her is warranted. 

Mills has been immersed in multiple personal controversies, including allegations of dating violence, stolen valor and stolen government contracts. He has denied wrongdoing. 

Lawmakers have traditionally been hesitant to expel members unless they have been convicted of a crime or completed the House’s ethics investigative process.  

However, a House Democratic leadership aide and a senior House Democrat told Axios that if either of the expulsion votes against Swalwell or Gonzales succeeds, it could trigger a chain reaction. 

▪ Politico: Swalwell staffers ‘horrified’ by accusations. 

▪ The Hill: Manhattan district attorney investigating Swalwell allegation. 

BACK TO BUSINESS: Lawmakers are also set to face a busy agenda beyond potential disciplinary measures when they return from a two-week recess Monday. 

At the top of the agenda is finally bringing an end to the record-long shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The Senate Budget Committee is set to start drafting a second reconciliation bill to fund U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol as part of a Trump-backed two-step process to fully fund DHS. 

The Senate has already sent a bill to fund the department except for ICE and Border Patrol to the House for a vote. But several House Republicans have said they won’t support that bill until funding for immigration enforcement is completed. 

The Senate is also set to vote on a war powers resolution pushed by Democrats to limit Trump’s authority in attacking Iran. The measure is expected to fail given widespread Republican opposition. 

Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is poised to continue his push for a “clean” 18-month reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which allows the government to spy on foreigners abroad without obtaining a warrant.  

Members of his conference are divided, as some are demanding reforms to ensure U.S. citizens’ information isn’t being obtained through the law. 

And Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) will likely face renewed pressure on advancing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who has been one of the law’s top proponents, indicated the Senate would resume a marathon debate on the bill this week. 

Read more from The Hill’s Sudiksha Kochi about what to expect from Congress this week here. 

▪ The Hill: Paycheck uncertainty looms for airport security workers. 

BALLROOM BACK ON: An appeals court has permitted construction on a ballroom at the White House to go forward for now, requesting clarification from a lower court judge who blocked it. 

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled 2-1 on Saturday that a preliminary injunction from U.S. District Judge Richard Leon should be paused until April 17. Leon’s order included an exception for construction necessary “to ensure the safety and security” of the White House and the president, but the appeals court is seeking more information about it. 

“We thus remand these cases to the district court with instructions to promptly address the pending motion to clarify how the injunction and its exception will ensure safety and security pending litigation,” the ruling states. 

The court battle is the only obstacle standing in Trump’s way of moving forward on building the ballroom, as it received approval from the National Capital Planning Commission earlier this month. The commission is mostly made up of Trump appointees. 

▪ The Hill: Ballroom saga invokes national security threats. 

The president will participate in executive time at 8 a.m. He will participate in signing time at 2 p.m. and a policy meeting at 4 p.m. He and first lady Melania Trump will greet Dutch King Willem-Alexander and Queen Máxima at 7 p.m. and have dinner with them at 7:45 p.m. 

The House will convene at 2:30 p.m. for a pro forma session. 

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. 

COLD SHOULDER: Communities from across the country, including those that backed Trump in the 2024 election, are widely pushing back on the establishment of ICE warehouses in their area. 

Social Circle, Ga., a small city of 5,500 people, overwhelmingly voted for Trump with more than 70 percent of the vote. But residents and local officials strongly objected when DHS bought a 1-million-square-foot warehouse to become a large detention center for immigrants. 

The city notified ICE in February that it shut off water and sewage services to the facility until the agency explained how it could operate without exceeding the city’s “infrastructure capacity.” 

The Hill’s Tolu Talabi reports this is just one of the communities supporting Trump’s agenda who have protested hosting detainees in their backyard. 

The Republican-leaning town of Roxbury, N.J., sued DHS and ICE in March over a purchased warehouse, while residents of Surprise, Ariz., protested a 1,500-bed facility, which was reduced to 500 beds amid the backlash. 

The department has purchased warehouses in more than a half-dozen states to hold thousands of detainees for three to seven days in small facilities and less than 60 days on average in large facilities. 

▪ The Hill: GOP infighting over bipartisan immigration reform bill. 

▪ CBS News: Administration sues Michigan county over enforcement obstruction. 

ORBÁN DEFEATED: The president has lost a key ally in Europe as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s party was thrashed in his country’s parliamentary elections Sunday, ousting him from power. 

The crushing defeat for Orbán’s Fidesz party will end his more than 15 years in power as prime minister. He will be succeeded by Péter Magyar, the head of the main opposition Tisza Party. 

With more than 98 percent of the vote counted, Tisza was projected to win a more than two-thirds majority of the country’s Parliament, giving it the threshold needed for significant change in government policy. Magyar is a former member of Orbán’s party who split with him and ran against alleged corruption of his administration. 

Magyar has also pledged closer relationships with the European Union and NATO, and his victory will be welcome news to many European leaders who have been frustrated by Orbán’s longtime antagonism toward the groups and his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

The loss is also a blow to Trump, who had strongly backed him and maintained close ties to Orbán during his first and second terms in the White House. Orbán, like Trump, has established a reputation as a right-wing populist, and the president endorsed his ally ahead of the election. 

He also dispatched Vance to try to boost Orbán last week before the election, but the effort failed to save him. Trump has yet to weigh in on his ally’s loss. 

Orbán conceded his defeat, calling the result “painful for us but clear.” 

“We are going to serve the Hungarian nation and our homeland from opposition,” he said. 

▪ The New York Times: Who is Péter Magyar? 

▪ The Hill: Cuban president says dialogue with U.S. ‘possible’ but ‘difficult.’ 

What really happened in Islamabad — and what Trump is trying now, David Ignatius writes in The Washington Post. 

The forgotten founder: Remembering James Otis on America’s 250th birthday, Joe Burns writes in The Hill. 

And finally … Trump congratulated professional golfer Rory McIlroy for his victory at the Masters Tournament on Sunday, praising his second consecutive win. 

“Congratulations to Rory McIlroy on another Great Championship, The Masters! He performed tremendously under intense pressure, something which few people would be able to even think about doing. With each year, Rory is becoming more and more a LEGEND!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

McIlroy became just the fourth golfer to win the tournament in back-to-back years, joining Jack Niklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods. 

Trump, who owns more than a dozen golf courses, has played with McIlroy at least twice, in 2017 and 2025. After the first round, McIlroy clarified it was not an endorsement.  

“I don’t agree with everything my friends and family do, but I still play golf with them,” he wrote in a social media post in 2017.  

We want to hear from you! Email me (JGans@TheHill.com) and suggest this newsletter to friends! 

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