Redistricting fight heads to grand finale in Virginia, Florida |
Redistricting fight heads to grand finale in Virginia, Florida
Morning Report is The Hill’s a.m. newsletter. Subscribe here.
Redistricting battle finale
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
Trump’s CDC nomination
Dems’ Q1 fundraising edge
The months-long arms race between the states to squeeze out as many pickup opportunities for the midterm elections as possible is coming to an end as the final states decide whether to alter their electoral maps before November.
Virginia and Florida are the last hope for both parties to gerrymander new districts and boost their chances of winning a House majority for next year.
The Old Dominion will go first, with voters set to head to the polls Tuesday to cast ballots in a referendum deciding whether the state should redistrict from its current map, in which Democrats hold a 6-5 seat edge. The map proposed by the Virginia state Legislature would make Democrats favored to win all but one of its 11 congressional districts, a potential pickup of four seats.
A few recent polls have shown a close race, and both sides can point to data suggesting optimism for the vote.
After Maryland Democrats failed to redraw their lines for the midterms, Virginia is Democrats’ last chance to make gains through redistricting ahead of November.
Meanwhile, the Sunshine State represents Republicans’ last chance, as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has advocated for a special session of the state Legislature to redraw its lines. DeSantis announced Thursday that he would delay the special session from next week to the following week as state lawmakers deal with budget negotiations, but he has pledged the session will happen.
If Florida goes through with the redistricting plan, Republicans could gain as many as five seats, essentially nullifying gains that Democrats hope to make in Virginia.
Tit-for-tat offsets have been the theme of the entire redistricting battle since Texas kicked it off last summer.
After Texas lawmakers passed a map that could allow the GOP to net up to five seats in November, California quickly responded with a ballot measure allowing it to conduct its own redistricting. That measure easily passed, and state lawmakers passed a new map potentially giving Democrats up to five seats, canceling out the gains from Texas.
The GOP was able to redistrict in North Carolina and may gain a seat from the new map, but Democrats are likely to cancel that gain out following a surprise court ruling in Utah that created a new district they’re likely to win.
Republicans may pick up a seat in Missouri, but a citizen-led push is trying to get a measure on the ballot to overturn that.
Ohio was required under its state constitution to redraw its lines, but the few districts that shifted toward Republicans in that process will still be in play for Democrats in November. And Indiana Republicans rebuffed pressure from President Trump to redraw their state’s lines, keeping the current map in place.
Republicans seem likely to come out on top at the end of this process, but their edge will almost certainly be much narrower than many in the party hoped. And it won’t be enough to significantly dim Democrats’ hopes of winning back control of the chamber, especially given signs of an increasingly favorable environment for the party out of power.
Political observers are also eagerly awaiting a pending ruling from the Supreme Court on Louisiana’s current map and its broader ramifications for the Voting Rights Act. A majority of the court seemed to lean toward limiting the use of race in the redistricting process, a decision that would have seismic ripple effects on states throughout the country.
But that decision is unlikely to impact this year’s midterms, as the filing deadlines in many states have already passed.
▪ WTOP: Early voting picks up in Northern Virginia for referendum.
▪ The Washington Post: Dark money pours millions into Virginia race.
Smart Take with Blake Burman
We have been focusing on rising gas prices over the last few months, but electricity costs are moving up as well. Residents in West Viriginia are sharing stories of increasing utility costs that rival some mortgages. As Trump took his economic pitch out on the road Thursday, I asked Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) about what the current environment could mean for Republicans in the midterm elections.
“I think the question is going to be: Is this the economic backdrop when we’re rolling past August?” He went on to say, “Once people start to plug in, you get past August, kids are back in school, election is running hot and heavy, that’s going to be the real question.”
There’s 145 days between Tax Day and Labor Day. Republicans have been making the argument that around now is when the president’s policies would kick in across the country.........