Cassidy’s fight for survival tests Louisiana’s new primary system |
Cassidy’s fight for survival tests Louisiana’s new primary system
▪ Cassidy makes his stand
▪ Trump touts accomplishments in China
▪ Supreme Court pauses abortion pill order
▪ CIA director visits Cuba
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If Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) survives the weekend, it will be no thanks to his fellow Louisiana Republican leaders.
Cassidy is staring down the most difficult race of his career as he faces two primary opponents — Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and state Treasurer John Fleming.
The most significant obstacle Cassidy faces may be opposition from President Trump, who has endorsed Letlow and railed against the incumbent for years, dating back to Cassidy’s decision to vote to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack.
But a significant change in Louisiana’s electoral system starting this year presents another barrier that Cassidy didn’t have to face during either of his past two Senate campaigns.
The state has, for about 15 years, employed a jungle primary for all races except for U.S. presidential elections. That system had all candidates regardless of party compete on the same ballot, and the top two best performers would advance to face each other in a runoff if no candidate won a majority of the vote.
But that changed after Gov. Jeff Landry (R) signed a law in 2024 to replace the system, reestablishing partisan primaries for various offices, including Congress.
Cassidy pushed back against the change as it advanced through Louisiana’s GOP-controlled Legislature in 2024, and some speculated that it was specifically intended to make ousting Cassidy easier, though advocates have denied that.
Louisiana Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R), a critic of the closed primaries, told the Louisiana Illuminator he believes the change was made with Cassidy in mind.
“I think the real push for this was to beat Bill Cassidy for Senate. Let’s call it like it is,” Nungesser told the outlet. “That appears to me to be the real real focus of why this was kind of pushed down our throats.”
Whether it was tailor made for Cassidy’s ouster, the effect has been clear since the law was signed.
“The handwriting has been on the wall ever since the election procedure was changed that this was going to be a tough race for Bill Cassidy,” Pearson Cross, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana, told The Hill’s Julia Mueller.
Cassidy’s vote to impeach Trump points to an independent streak that was a strength in a jungle primary. But it could be a weakness in the partisan primary, especially as his opponents have accused him of being insufficiently conservative and loyal to the president.
Cassidy’s relationship with Trump soured after his vote in 2021 to convict him in the impeachment case, and it hasn’t significantly improved since then. The Louisiana Republican Party censured Cassidy for his vote.
The senator also refused to endorse Trump in the 2024 election, calling on him to drop out over the criminal indictments he faced.
Most recently, he received Trump’s fury as the president pulled his nomination of Casey Means to be U.S. surgeon general, accusing Cassidy of standing in the way. That generated backlash from members of the Make America Healthy Again movement, including Health and Humans Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with whom Cassidy has publicly clashed.
MAHA Action, the advocacy arm of the movement, pledged to spend $1 million trying to oust Cassidy, a gastroenterologist and staunch advocate for childhood vaccinations.
Polling has painted a murky picture of what might happen Saturday. Despite having endorsements from Trump and Landry, Letlow hasn’t significantly pulled away from her opponents in most surveys. Fleming has also performed relatively well in the polls despite a lack of many high-profile endorsements.
A runoff appears almost certain with three major candidates in the race. Letlow appears most likely to make it, as she has most consistently led in the relatively limited number of polls. That would still leave Fleming and Cassidy battling for second.
The most recent poll from the right-leaning pollster Quantus Insights released last week showed Letlow leading with 42 percent, followed by Fleming with 30 percent and Cassidy with 20 percent. An earlier survey from Emerson College Polling showed the candidates essentially deadlocked, with Fleming narrowly ahead with 28 percent to Letlow’s 27 percent and Cassidy’s 21 percent.
Another poll released last week suggested better news for........