‘Flashing red’ warning signs for GOP put Senate in play

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Concerning midterm signs for GOP

Internal Epstein files audit

Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended

White House Correspondents’ Association dinner

The warning signals have never been louder for the GOP as the midterm elections rapidly approach, with the economic impact of the Iran war fueling voter anxiety and stiffening headwinds for the party in power.

Republicans were hit with a double whammy of heartburn-inducing polling on back-to-back days Wednesday and Thursday.

A Cook Political Report poll found Democrats holding a 6-point advantage in a survey of the 36 House districts most likely to determine which party wins a majority in the lower chamber. That was up from a steady 3-to-5-point lead for Democrats in a generic ballot.

And a Fox News poll showed more voters believe Democrats would better handle the economy than Republicans for the first time since 2010, with inflation and the economy topping voter priorities.

Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), told The Hill the Iran war and its economic impact, particularly a spike in gas prices, are compounding to create a more difficult political environment for the GOP.

“Thinking about people’s economic pessimism, concern about cost of living, the conflict in Iran … people seeing their gas prices through the roof, and if that doesn’t settle a bit or go down a bit before November, these are all things I think are creating conditions where it’s easier to imagine the Democrats pulling off the Senate win,” Skelley said.

Cook called the results of its poll a “flashing red warning sign” for Republican candidates running in competitive districts.

“If that advantage were to hold come November, any district Trump carried by 10 points or less could be in significant danger of flipping into Democratic hands,” the outlet’s Amy Walter and Carrie Dann wrote in their analysis.

Earlier this month, Cook shifted four Senate races toward Democrats, assessing that the GOP remained the favorite to win the upper chamber but adding “that outlook could change in the coming months.”

A marathon vote-a-rama overnight on Wednesday pointed to the pressure facing some of the most vulnerable Republicans. GOP Sens. Dan Sullivan (Alaska) and Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) cast multiple votes with Democrats for amendments to tackle the cost of health care, which were shot down by the rest of their party.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) outraised Sullivan in the first quarter, with a $9 million haul, and led by more than 6 points in a poll taken this month. In Maine, Collins has trailed Graham Platner, the favorite to win the Democratic primary, in head-to-head polls.

Cook favors Democrats to win the North Carolina seat being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis (R), rates the race for GOP Sen. Jon Husted’s seat in Ohio as a tossup and has the Senate elections in Iowa, Texas and Nebraska as “likely” Republican.

Democrats need to pick up four GOP seats, and hold the ones they have, to flip the Senate, given Vice President Vance’s tie-breaking vote.

President Trump’s sinking approval rating has also given Republicans more reason for concern.

A survey released this week from The Associated Press-NORC showed just a third of respondents said they approved of his job performance, the lowest point of his second term and near the lowest ever. Only 30 percent said they approved of his handling of the economy, an 8-point drop from last month.

Trump’s approval rating in the DDHQ national average stands just above 40 percent, while his average disapproval is the highest it’s been this term at 57 percent.

But even as Democrats are pulling ahead in the polls and winning off-year elections, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports some in the party are worried Democrats are misreading what their successes signal. Instead of indicating electoral support for their own policies and messaging, these skeptics warn the swing is based only on a backlash to the president.

“No one knows what we stand for anymore except that we loathe Trump with every bone in our bodies,” one consultant told Parnes. “That’s not lost on anyone. But what else?”

Still, Skelley said the momentum is clearly on the left with less than 200 days until the midterm election.

“I still would give Republicans a slight edge in the race for the Senate … just Democrats have to have a lot of things go right now. Those things could go right,” he said.

“Democrats now have a genuine shot.”

▪ The Guardian: Trump approval slips.

▪ NBC News: How Trump’s poll numbers compare with 2018.

Smart Take with Blake Burman

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche just signed an order to reclassify marijuana from the Drug Enforcement Administration’s strictest Section I level to a lower Section III classification. The move follows an executive order Trump signed last year, which called on the administration to speed up the process. I asked Ryan Vandrey, who helps run the Cannabis Science Lab at Johns Hopkins University, what this means going forward for medical marijuana.

“It’s also really important for us to recognize that the disconnect between state law and federal law has stymied research for us to understand these things and for us to move forward to get more targeted therapeutics in the areas where we think it’s potentially really helpful,” Vandrey told me.

However, not all of the president’s backers support the move. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) pushed back against the decision, calling it a “step in the wrong direction.” Still, this is the latest in a series of moves coming out of the White House, dating back to the Biden administration, where there’s been a focus on taking a softer approach to marijuana.

Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6p/5c on NewsNation.

A U.S. Army soldier accused of using classified information about the raid to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket has been arrested. He’s been charged with using confidential government information for personal gain. The bets reportedly paid out some $400,000.

Podcaster Joe Rogan renewed criticism of Trump’s handling of the war with Iran, saying his strategy “doesn’t make sense.” Rogan is one of several prominent media figures who supported the president but have criticized him over the war.

The White House has eased mandatory requirements for preserving presidential records after the Department of Justice (DOJ) issued an opinion that the Presidential Records Act exceeded Congress’s powers, The Washington Post reported.

Former attorney General Pam Bondi testifies before a House Judiciary Committee oversight hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Feb. 11, 2026, in front of survivors of convicted sex offended Jeffrey Epstein. (Tom Brenner, Associated Press)

EPSTEIN AUDIT: The DOJ’s inspector general is launching a review of the department’s compliance with a law requiring it to release the Epstein files amid ongoing criticism that it hasn’t followed through with the legal requirements.

Critics on both sides of the political aisle have accused the DOJ of noncompliance in its handling of the files. Although the law only permits limited exceptions to disclosure, including to protect victims’ identities, many parts of the documents have been redacted.

The names and other information about survivors were also improperly disclosed during the initial release.

The DOJ Office of the Inspector General said in a statement that its preliminary goal is to evaluate the department’s “processes for identifying, redacting, and releasing records in its possession.”

The office will investigate how the DOJ set guidelines for looking through the 6 million files, the directives it gave staff and its instructions on how the department would address “post-release publication concerns.” The office said it will consider other issues that may arise from the audit as well.

The controversy surrounding the files dominated much of former Attorney General Pam Bondi’s time leading the DOJ, and it’s not showing any signs of letting up with Blanche now in charge.

Blanche, as deputy attorney general, announced the DOJ completed its review of the files and released the final tranche in late January, but additional files were later revealed to still be withheld.

The inspector general review also comes as the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee continues its investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. Several high-profile figures are set to testify before the committee in the coming weeks, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Epstein’s former assistant.

▪ Detroit Free Press: Epstein sought access to Stellantis chair.

LEBANON CEASEFIRE: The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by three weeks following talks at the White House, Trump announced Thursday.

He wrote in a post on Truth Social that the ceasefire was extended after conversations that included “high ranking” representatives from Lebanon and Israel, Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee and U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa.

The extension builds on a previous 10-day ceasefire reached last week, a critical step in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran as the latter has insisted that Lebanon be included in a pause in hostilities.

Trump announced Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran would be extended indefinitely to give time for negotiations to be concluded.

But the U.S. has continued to enforce its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military said Thursday that it seized three tankers carrying oil from Iran.

The president ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any boat caught putting mines in the strait as the U.S. focuses on clearing mines that Iran placed in the waterway.

▪ The Hill: Trump rules out using nuclear weapon in Iran.

▪ The Hill: Pakistan’s turn from pariah to linchpin in peace talks.

RUSSIAGATE SETTLEMENT: The DOJ has settled a lawsuit with a former top campaign aide from Trump’s 2016 presidential bid over surveillance conducted on him as part of the FBI’s probe into Russian interference in the election.

Carter Page sued the DOJ in 2020, alleging the department and the FBI made a series of errors when seeking permission to conduct surveillance on him, resulting in “unlawful spying.” The agencies had been investigating whether Page was acting as a Russian agent.

Page denied any wrongdoing and was never charged in the so-called “Russiagate” probe.

The settlement only covers Page’s claims against the federal government and not the FBI. A source familiar with the matter told The Associated Press that the settlement was $1.25 million.

The lawsuit came after a DOJ inspector general report found in 2019 that the FBI was justified in investigating possible ties between the 2016 Trump campaign and Russia but “serious performance failures” plagued the agency’s chain of command.

▪ The Hill: DOJ targets citizens in new denaturalization push.

ALMOST DONE DEAL: Warner Bros. Discovery’s board voted Thursday to approve the sale of the media company to Paramount Skydance in a key step toward forming what would create a massive entertainment giant.

The deal will still need approval from the DOJ to overcome antitrust questions. The company said the deal is expected to be cleared in the third quarter of this year.

If approved, the merger would have major implications for moviemaking and television production, along with CNN, which is owned by Warner Bros. Discovery.

▪ BBC: What the merger could mean for streaming, film and the news.

PUSHED OUT: The person responsible for ensuring the editorial independence of the U.S. military newspaper Stars and Stripes has been fired months after the Pentagon took over the outlet to remove “woke distractions.”

The Washington Post reported Jacqueline Smith told the paper’s staff in a message that she believes she was ousted as ombudsman for speaking against the Department of Defense’s decision to overhaul Stars and Stripes.

“I knew it was risky to speak out, but my responsibility to Stripes and the First Amendment was paramount,” Smith said.

Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in January that the department would return Stars and Stripes to its “original mission” of “reporting for our warfighters.” Newspaper staff are technically Defense Department employees but have been editorially independent from Pentagon leadership for decades.

The president will participate in executive time at 8 a.m. He will participate in a policy meeting at 2 p.m. before traveling to Palm Beach, Fla., to participate in the Republican National Committee’s spring retreat at 7:30 p.m.

The House and Senate are out today.

President Trump speaks at a Turning Point USA event at Dream City Church, April 17, 2026, in Phoenix. (Ross D. Franklin, Associated Press)

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S WHCD DEBUT: Trump is set to return to the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner for the first time as president on Saturday, a highly anticipated appearance that will see him mingle with a press corps he regularly attacks.

Trump last attended the dinner in 2015, weeks before he launched his first presidential run. He broke with tradition by skipping the dinner throughout the entirety of his first term.

But Trump announced last month that he would attend this year’s dinner.

“Because the Press was extraordinarily bad to me, FAKE NEWS ALL, right from the beginning of my First Term, I boycotted the event, and never went as Honoree. However, I look forward to being with everyone this year. Hopefully, it will be something very Special,” he said in a post on Truth Social.

Trump made a memorable appearance at the event in 2011, when he was roasted by then-President Obama over the conspiracy theories Trump floated about Obama not being a U.S. citizen. Trump allies have pointed to the moment as when he decided to run for president.

Hundreds of journalists signed an open letter this week urging their colleagues to use the dinner to “forcefully demonstrate opposition to President Trump’s efforts to trample freedom of the press.”

But The Hill’s Judy Kurtz reports Washington insiders and event organizers say the excitement for the event this year is through the roof.

▪ NPR: Can a mentalist trick Trump?

▪ The New York Times: How we cover the dinner.

Then-candidate Rep. Thomas Kean Jr (R-N.J.) speaks at his election night party held in Basking Ridge N.J., Nov. 8, 2022. (Stefan Jeremiah, Associated Press file)

MIA: Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (R-N.J.) has now been absent from Congress for more than a month as he deals with an unspecified health issue.

Kean cast his most recent vote on March 5 and has since missed almost 50 roll-call votes. A spokesperson for the congressman has said in statements to multiple outlets that Kean is “dealing with a personal medical issue that prevents him” from being able to cast votes.

“He’s expected to be totally fine and back to a full schedule soon,” spokesperson Harrison Neely told the New Jersey Globe.

But Kean’s office has been mum on the specifics of his condition.

Politico reported that even Kean’s colleagues aren’t sure where he is. Fellow New Jersey GOP Reps. Chris Smith and Jeff Van Drew told the outlet they have both called and texted Kean out of concern for his health but haven’t heard from him.

His absence comes as Kean is one of Democrats’ top targets to defeat in November in the slightly red-leaning district. Kean was first elected in 2022, when he defeated former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D).

Kean fended off a challenge in 2024, but multiple Democrats are running in a competitive primary to try again to defeat him.

▪ The Hill: Wisconsin Republican says he’s not focused on reelection bid.

▪ The Hill: GOP, Dem super PACs announce millions in ad reservations.

The White House press corps should ask these 2 questions every time, Stuart N. Brotman writes in The Hill.

We still aren’t doing enough to prevent the next devastating wildfire, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) write in The Hill.

A plate with photos of late Queen Elizabeth II is on display for sale at a souvenirs shop in London, on April 17, 2026. (Kin Cheung, Associated Press)

And finally … 👏👏👏 Congrats to this week’s Morning Report quiz winners! They knew some quick facts about the long-serving Queen Elizabeth II and her reign.

Here’s who went 4/4: Chuck Schoenenberger, Richard Baznik, Michael Salanik, Peter Sprofera, Jenessa Wagner, Ned Sauthoff, M. Whitehouse, Mark R. Williamson, Steve Comer, Robert Bradley, Terry Pflaumer and Steve James.

Elizabeth was considered unlikely to become the British monarch at her birth because her father also wasn’t expected to become the monarch. At the time, in 1926, George V’s oldest son, who became Edward VIII, was first in line for the throne. After Edward abdicated, George VI ascended to the throne. That placed Elizabeth as the next in line. She was third in line at her birth.

Elizabeth appointed 15 prime ministers during her reign, ending with Liz Truss, who was appointed just two days before the queen died.

The only monarch of a sovereign state who served longer than Elizabeth was King Louis XIV of France, who served for 72 years.

The 70th anniversary celebration was the platinum jubilee. Ruby was the 40th anniversary, while gold was the 50th and diamond was the 60th.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

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